• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding metals, finance, politics, government and many other topics"

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,371
Reaction score
4,375
The pertinent question is would you even let Joe drive you home from the airport?

[Me neither.]
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
How many times can the market retest $1680 w/o cracking?


 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
There will be no gld if that was the case. It's either going to trade as a reasonable proxy or cease to exist.

I don't know how much stock you put in Jim Sinclair but he said many years ago that paper Gold could trade to zero while Gold could run to 50K.
 

Uglytruth

Mother Lode Found
Sr Midas Sup +++
Survivor
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
22,368
Reaction score
56,065

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
7,627
Reaction score
12,834
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
There will be no gld if that was the case. It's either going to trade as a reasonable proxy or cease to exist.

Not an if but when... GLD will absolutely blow up at some point.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
FcsfL-rXkAM8VUM.jpg
 

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
7,627
Reaction score
12,834
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
Shorting gold miners is looking to have been the best trade of the year.

There are multiple tech companies and others that are down 80-90%. I've thrown a few shorts out like MRNA and RCL at times. Good for hedges but I did not have enough at that. Right now I have some, too small, spread trades against TMUS and BA.

It's very telling that Gold is breaking down more but Silver still off the lows. Just some more paper but they are not even able to break silver. Get ready for some giant wiplash.
 
Last edited:

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
1,466
Reaction score
1,797
Mining stocks (GDX/GDXJ) are NOT making new lows on the break of this very important 1680 support level. Good sign. I suspect gold is going to reverse back higher and reclaim 1680 over the next couple weeks. Could be a signal that this is a "stop hunting" purge just before the reversal back to the trend to 2000.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Mining stocks (GDX/GDXJ) are NOT making new lows on the break of this very important 1680 support level. Good sign. I suspect gold is going to reverse back higher and reclaim 1680 over the next couple weeks. Could be a signal that this is a "stop hunting" purge just before the reversal back to the trend to 2000.
Fall Equinox or maybe this week. Who knows?
 

savvydon

Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
4,529
Reaction score
5,749
Mining stocks (GDX/GDXJ) are NOT making new lows on the break of this very important 1680 support level. Good sign. I suspect gold is going to reverse back higher and reclaim 1680 over the next couple weeks. Could be a signal that this is a "stop hunting" purge just before the reversal back to the trend to 2000.
Judging by the uptick I hear in wailing and gnashing of teeth (myself included), you may be right.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
You're only gnashing your teeth if you are long from above otherwise pass the popcorn.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,371
Reaction score
4,375
Oliver thinks it will be bear trap, but who knows?
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
Mining stocks (GDX/GDXJ) are NOT making new lows on the break of this very important 1680 support level. Good sign. I suspect gold is going to reverse back higher and reclaim 1680 over the next couple weeks. Could be a signal that this is a "stop hunting" purge just before the reversal back to the trend to 2000.

I would hope that smart money is soaking up the viable ones @ these levels. If they are not value now then when?!!!!
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
Oliver thinks it will be bear trap, but who knows?

Yeah.... I'm not so sure about his USD thesis, dollar weakness implies that the system is recuperating. I'd not be forecasting that at this point.

I guess if the market has discounted 1% and we get 0.75% that could be enough to spark a rally and squeeze. The whole market seems to me to be on the short side of this... that implies upside risk to me.
 
Last edited:

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
Fall Equinox or maybe this week. Who knows?

That stuff seems to have an effect... moons etc. I notice mood swings with the pack of mums at the kid's school. Mood just seems to wax and wane by some unseen force. Humans are nutz...
 
Last edited:

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
Shorting gold miners is looking to have been the best trade of the year.

Gold divided by the HUI for the last 5 years. This is about as undervalued v gold as the stocks ever get, maybe a 10 is doable but by the look of the indicators gold stocks are on the turn v gold.


sc.png


Some history for perspective...

sc1.png


sc2.png
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
If we ever see the 1.5 area again it is sell territory!
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
The pertinent question is would you even let Joe drive you home from the airport?

[Me neither.]

If I was paid a significant sum and I was in the back seat of an S Class with a full face helmet.

Like the market risk mitigation is king!

LOL.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
I don't know how much stock you put in Jim Sinclair but he said many years ago that paper Gold could trade to zero while Gold could run to 50K.

If that happens I'd expect that the entire futures market will have lost its credibility. Given the Saudis are calling bullshit on the paper oil price it would appear possible. However I can't imagine that they would willingly lose relevance, at some point it is more to their advantage to straighten the market out. When commodities law was originally developed it was in response to such a futures market schism in acknowledgment of the 'potential' (constant?!) abuse of commodity suppliers. I reckon you will see a new round of regulation to 'fix' the market at some point. This will be forced on them as the power shifts to the supply side over time. I expect we are @ the end of an era in that regard.

JMO etc...
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251

In theory gold is a #Quad4 long hold... in theory. So far in practice -> head winds.

Beach Ball under the waves or a quick visit to the Titanic?
 

Uglytruth

Mother Lode Found
Sr Midas Sup +++
Survivor
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
22,368
Reaction score
56,065
That stuff seems to have an effect... moons etc. I notice mood swings with the pack of mums at the kid's school. Mood just seems to wax and wane by some unseen force. Humans are nutz...
Used to work across from a nightclub. Full moon & all the crazies were out. Fights, screaming you name it! Other weekends was pretty tame with some tire squeeling.




I don't know how much stock you put in Jim Sinclair but he said many years ago that paper Gold could trade to zero while Gold could run to 50K.
So if gold and silver run up big and the only thing to cash out into is digita cbdc.......... do you lock in the gains in cbdc or hold on to something tangable? Asking for me, me, me!
 

Uglytruth

Mother Lode Found
Sr Midas Sup +++
Survivor
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
22,368
Reaction score
56,065
Zed
Thoughts of investing and HOW in the new BRICS currency if it's partial backed by gold?

I bought RSX when they were playing games & after sanctions it went up and up and up but I can'g get out of the trade at this point do to puddin braindon. 500 shares for $3500 and my statemet said it was $8000 but untradeable. That's what got me to thinking about the currency trades.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
Thoughts of investing and HOW in the new BRICS currency if it's partial backed by gold?

It's really going to depend on how the Fed responds if it happens. I've always thought that the final flourish of this gold bull market will make more sense if you are a US citizen. For us out here there could well be better places to be but inside the US, if the Fed is printing like mad to 'fix' the issue then I suspect hard commodities will be good, chiefly gold but really anything you send to them. The companies that produce and export commodities to the BRIC's should be strong in that environment. This is assuming that Fed doesn't get religion and go hard money on your ass.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,983
Reaction score
24,251
Used to work across from a nightclub. Full moon & all the crazies were out. Fights, screaming you name it! Other weekends was pretty tame with some tire squeeling.

Once I read a report that said there is no crime correlation with full moons but given my life experiences, like yours I find that very hard to believe. Even back in my Brokerage days big full moons bought big trouble. Deals just got nutty real quick.
 

gnome

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
6,170
Reaction score
5,720
I don't know how much stock you put in Jim Sinclair but he said many years ago that paper Gold could trade to zero while Gold could run to 50K.
Paper is for trading. Physical is for keeping.
 

gnome

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
6,170
Reaction score
5,720
Once I read a report that said there is no crime correlation with full moons but given my life experiences, like yours I find that very hard to believe. Even back in my Brokerage days big full moons bought big trouble. Deals just got nutty real quick.
Emergency room medical personnel will tell you it gets crazy on the full moon. I'm crazy regardless of moon phase.
 

savvydon

Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
4,529
Reaction score
5,749
Emergency room medical personnel will tell you it gets crazy on the full moon. I'm crazy regardless of moon phase.
Seems these days it is effing crazy any and every night.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Pay me now or pay me a lot more later.

 

BigJim#1-8

Platinum Bling
Midas Supporter
Survivor
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
6,754
Reaction score
28,920
Futures down 400+ (Dow)
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,371
Reaction score
4,375
So if gold and silver run up big and the only thing to cash out into is digita cbdc.......... do you lock in the gains in cbdc or hold on to something tangable? Asking for me, me, me!
I'm not answering your question but merely commenting. I think I know a secret but I could be wrong.

Humans are ingenious at creating currencies as needed. TPTB can institute CBDC's and therefore you must use it for all your official purchases. But I don't think they have the power that they think they have. What they will do is push more and more purchases underground using organically created alternative currencies. Or even barter.

We'll go off the books, insofar as we can.

 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Silver coins barter but they gonna take Silver dimes at Food Lion or Harris Teeter?
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,371
Reaction score
4,375
Silver coins barter but they gonna take Silver dimes at Food Lion or Harris Teeter?
I do think people adjust.

When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -- Hunter S. Thompson

I think Food Lion will be official purchases. But coppersmith may have a point.
 

coopersmith

for fuck sake..........
Silver Miner
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
5,499
Reaction score
11,599
Location
ogallala flats
People are already trading items they bought w food stamps or stole for drugs and other things. Taking friends to the store, buying 200 frn food, then charging friends 100 frn for the load.......etcetcetc

Its already happening.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,371
Reaction score
4,375
You will pay your taxes in CBDC, that's for sure.