• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding metals, finance, politics, government and many other topics"

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
FdAUDF5WAAEKOlV.jpg
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Quite a few support levels so I guess one of them must be right. Peter Brandt not that well known but who has survived for over 40 years trading said some time back that if Bitcoin traded under 10K then it is nothing more than Beanie Babies.


Fc_9JmtagAIL4dA.jpg
 

gnome

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
6,170
Reaction score
5,720
Bitcoin is a railroad to move money through time and space. Michael Saylor. Keep this boy out of the Manischewitz.
Bitcoin evangelism, microdosing on LSD and gambling on a corporate balance sheet...what could possibly go wrong?!
 

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
7,627
Reaction score
12,836
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
Bitcoin evangelism, microdosing on LSD and gambling on a corporate balance sheet...what could possibly go wrong?!

Earnings reports for high flying stocks are the best time to short. You get sell the news far more often than the stock taking off.
 

gnome

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
6,170
Reaction score
5,720

gnome

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
6,170
Reaction score
5,720
Earnings reports for high flying stocks are the best time to short. You get sell the news far more often than the stock taking off.
Microstrategy doesn't have earnings, just a bitcoin play gone ugly, lol. Of course, some of the ugly is because they aren't allowed to book unrealized cap gains as income, but must mark down a bitcoin impairment.

us-mstr-earningspersharediluted.png
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
The pm complex working lower into mid week would have made this a easier trade. Don't want to chase but it looks like at least some of the shares bottomed already.
 

chieftain

Trump got them plump
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 4, 2020
Messages
6,024
Reaction score
10,525
No bid on US T-bills would fill a lot of diapers.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
I'm listening to some reasonably respectable macro analysts saying that this is not so bad, that against a massively negative blogoshpere and twitterverse. Makes me want to bet on a better than expected outcome next year. Mind you the Fed will probably have completely stomped on the markets balls by then. This might add up to a 2008 type market buy. What about all the debt you say? I dunno, maybe I'm dead before it really means anything serious... maybe not. What a fun game!
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
Hard to credit when FedEx has hit the wall, gas consumption is through the floor and the big retailers are cancelling mega bucks worth of orders heading into the busy season. Maybe the Fed has induced more pessimism than is really due? I'm starting to doubt everything... again.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
ZNZ22_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_09_20_2022.png


Yes volume is tapering but it isn't unprecedented and we have spent quite a bit of time around these sorts of volume levels in the past. I dunno that you can read anything significant into it forecasting anything much.
 

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
7,627
Reaction score
12,836
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
I'm listening to some reasonably respectable macro analysts saying that this is not so bad, that against a massively negative blogoshpere and twitterverse. Makes me want to bet on a better than expected outcome next year. Mind you the Fed will probably have completely stomped on the markets balls by then. This might add up to a 2008 type market buy. What about all the debt you say? I dunno, maybe I'm dead before it really means anything serious... maybe not. What a fun game!

Look at it this way, perhaps the market senses the FEDs problem. They can stomp all they want but what will they really destroy? The bond market. Granted thats a huge market bit not one retail cares about as much. And what happens when people start running from the bond markets? That money runs somewhere and i think that will be commodities #1 and stocks #2. Setting up the beginning of hyper inflation.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
If they're running from the bond market in any sustained way I'd have to assume that the USD is toast. Inevitable yes, but imminent? I wonder what the move to CBDC's brings. They better get the messaging correct on that whole deal. Makes me wonder how managing expectations surrounding, what I assume will be a phased introduction, will go.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
Wacist BS!

 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
I think this is worth the time especially if you want to frame what is happening to the USA.

 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
If they're running from the bond market in any sustained way I'd have to assume that the USD is toast. Inevitable yes, but imminent? I wonder what the move to CBDC's brings. They better get the messaging correct on that whole deal. Makes me wonder how managing expectations surrounding, what I assume will be a phased introduction, will go.

No cash will be a problem for obvious reasons. If you trust govt and I do not going all digital won't be much of a problem since most people pay with a credit card and pay credit cards directly from a bank account now anyway.
If you believe everything is being controlled by WEF or the like then the move made by Canada freezing accts. who contributed to the truckers then selling a digital currency which can be cut off makes this a hard sell.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Look at it this way, perhaps the market senses the FEDs problem. They can stomp all they want but what will they really destroy? The bond market. Granted thats a huge market bit not one retail cares about as much. And what happens when people start running from the bond markets? That money runs somewhere and i think that will be commodities #1 and stocks #2. Setting up the beginning of hyper inflation.
Commodity stocks or commodities via the futures market?
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
No cash will be a problem for obvious reasons. If you trust govt and I do not going all digital won't be much of a problem since most people pay with a credit card and pay credit cards directly from a bank account now anyway.
If you believe everything is being controlled by WEF or the like then the move made by Canada freezing accts. who contributed to the truckers then selling a digital currency which can be cut off makes this a hard sell.

Yeah, kinda midway. IMO people are going to see it as a power grab of sorts, depending how widely it is implemented. It might be a two tiered system with the banks etc using it while the ordinary person uses the $. Of course this would change over time to include all but it might be staged.

If it eliminates privacy totally there are big unclean $$$ floating around the US that will respond. Remember when they altered the regs (I forget exactly what they did) and the banks went to the gov and said if any more drug money flows out of the system we are f*cked. I'm paraphrasing but that is basically what went down. They triggered an outflow of crime money and it was significant!

I think that there are potential issues here that might require some significant adjustment. JMO etc... Pure speculation off course!
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Hey as long as you aren't doing anything illegal why would you care? You might be surprised what the average mouth breather will accept.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
We get a good down day in the pm complex I'll bite on some SILJ.
 

Uglytruth

Mother Lode Found
Sr Midas Sup +++
Survivor
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
22,368
Reaction score
56,065
A digital currency will have ramifications that will be unseen.
Babysitter, lawn mower, garage sale, flea market, facebook marketplace, farmers market, drive in theater, road side stand, tipping, small mom & pops that operate in cash like a ice cream shop, barbers & hair stylists, massage, auto repair, simply helping lend someone $20 until payday, splitting gas or tolls on a trip with a friend, buying someone dinner, splitting a 6 pack and a pizza, holding an event collecting gate money and then paying all the bills afterwards, food trailers, selling anything and everything. If anything is more hasle than it is worth it will stop.

The unseen of this will be bigger than the digital. THey think whatever % they are missing is costing them TAX money. They never take inot account the unseen of if someone can't do something for a few bucks why even do it?

Example. WHen dad was alive we would enjoy going to car swap meets together. Get up at 4 am & drive a hundred miles, pay to get in, walk around & maybe buy nothing, have lunch and head home ususlly with a side trip & end up blowing the whole day.

Gas $
Gate $
Breakfast $
Lunch $
Dinner $
Who knows what else $

My point is who is going to take THEIR time to go to a swap meet to sell something for $50 and me to go buy it if everything is regulated ever inch of the way? While some is already above board like gas the $50 we spent on parts had an actual cost of over $100 + parts and it went somewhere generating cash flow thru the system. So if they kill that stuff off they kill off how many hundreds of people from doing something similar........
I see it as a lose lose.

Just like $6 gas keeps everyone at home and not attending an event digital currency will KILL many unseen things. Then at what point with fewer vendors and buyers do the promoters stop when their is nothing in it for them?
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
Hey as long as you aren't doing anything illegal why would you care? You might be surprised what the average mouth breather will accept
I'm thinking more of any systemic impact from reactions to it's introduction. A Fed CBDC isn't going to alter life here much at all! We will probably have the luxury of watching you guy's test the waters first. Interesting times, no?
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,984
Reaction score
24,251
If it eliminates privacy totally there are big unclean $$$ floating around the US that will respond. Remember when they altered the regs (I forget exactly what they did) and the banks went to the gov and said if any more drug money flows out of the system we are f*cked. I'm paraphrasing but that is basically what went down. They triggered an outflow of crime money and it was significant!

It could flow to BTC....
 

.41Dave

Seeker
Seeker
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
469
Reaction score
892
A digital currency will have ramifications that will be unseen.
Babysitter, lawn mower, garage sale, flea market, facebook marketplace, farmers market, drive in theater, road side stand, tipping, small mom & pops that operate in cash like a ice cream shop, barbers & hair stylists, massage, auto repair, simply helping lend someone $20 until payday, splitting gas or tolls on a trip with a friend, buying someone dinner, splitting a 6 pack and a pizza, holding an event collecting gate money and then paying all the bills afterwards, food trailers, selling anything and everything. If anything is more hasle than it is worth it will stop.

The unseen of this will be bigger than the digital. THey think whatever % they are missing is costing them TAX money. They never take inot account the unseen of if someone can't do something for a few bucks why even do it?

Example. WHen dad was alive we would enjoy going to car swap meets together. Get up at 4 am & drive a hundred miles, pay to get in, walk around & maybe buy nothing, have lunch and head home ususlly with a side trip & end up blowing the whole day.

Gas $
Gate $
Breakfast $
Lunch $
Dinner $
Who knows what else $

My point is who is going to take THEIR time to go to a swap meet to sell something for $50 and me to go buy it if everything is regulated ever inch of the way? While some is already above board like gas the $50 we spent on parts had an actual cost of over $100 + parts and it went somewhere generating cash flow thru the system. So if they kill that stuff off they kill off how many hundreds of people from doing something similar........
I see it as a lose lose.

Just like $6 gas keeps everyone at home and not attending an event digital currency will KILL many unseen things. Then at what point with fewer vendors and buyers do the promoters stop when their is nothing in it for them?
You're assuming that they don't want to kill the informal economy. I suspect they want to destroy those swap meets, flea markets, roadside stands and teenage side jobs. If the oligarchs don't profit from it, they want it ended
 

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
7,627
Reaction score
12,836
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
Commodity stocks or commodities via the futures market?

Everything they can get their hands on. The Global bond markets are huge.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,371
Reaction score
4,375
10 year yield.

[Holy hell.]

TNX_2022-09-20_09-25-42.png
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Get to 14% govt MM fund and might be interested. cool: No way out.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,371
Reaction score
4,375
Alternate informal currencies will emerge. It's what humans do.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Going to test the bottoms of those bullish engulfing candles from last week. That's the buy with a close stop if they fail.
 

gnome

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
6,170
Reaction score
5,720

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
7,627
Reaction score
12,836
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
Going to test the bottoms of those bullish engulfing candles from last week. That's the buy with a close stop if they fail.

They got the FED parading around again today and tomorrow. Throw everything at PM's to keep things looking OK.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
6,223
Reaction score
8,942
Location
NC
Seems the popular thing to do is just dribble these days.
You know back in the day they used to call palming violations now palming goes on all the time. Esp on Pennsylvania Avenue.