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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Voodoo

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Everything they can get their hands on. The Global bond markets are huge.

Clearly we are not there yet... This article shows that this large/dumb money is still trained in the "flight to safety" of bonds. I think that blows up soon.


TLT’s price has slumped nearly 29% so far in 2022, putting the ETF on track for its worst year ever. Despite the abysmal performance, investors have poured nearly $12 billion into the fund year-to-date -- also an annual record. It’s a similar dynamic across the bond ETF arena, which has absorbed $118 billion of inflows this year even though almost 95% of funds nursing losses.
 

Lancers32

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I see they are going to investigate the migrant flights to Whitelandia. I hear Hunter chuckling in the background. This country has become a fcking farce.
 

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Clearly we are not there yet... This article shows that this large/dumb money is still trained in the "flight to safety" of bonds. I think that blows up soon.


TLT’s price has slumped nearly 29% so far in 2022, putting the ETF on track for its worst year ever. Despite the abysmal performance, investors have poured nearly $12 billion into the fund year-to-date -- also an annual record. It’s a similar dynamic across the bond ETF arena, which has absorbed $118 billion of inflows this year even though almost 95% of funds nursing losses.
The Lemmings are fighting each other to get up the cliff. This is paradoxically, the pinnacle of Darwinism; a flight to bankruptcy.
 

Lancers32

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If you think this is a fool proof all out mortgage the farm and buy signal remember that Barron's put a bull on the front cover of its weekly the exact bottom in 1982. Still we might be at or are very close to a bottom.


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Voodoo

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They have a logistical issue. Where else are they going to go?

Anywhere.... If they stick around in those bonds they ain't getting nuffin back. When they realize that the game is over.
 

Lancers32

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Anywhere.... If they stick around in those bonds they ain't getting nuffin back. When they realize that the game is over.
That's a lot of money to move around.
 

Voodoo

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I see they are going to investigate the migrant flights to Whitelandia. I hear Hunter chuckling in the background. This country has become a fcking farce.
Welcome to the decline.....RIP
I'm just sitting back enjoying the show.
 

Zed

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Stocks is my guess.

As soon as stocks flip the boyz have ground to recover so yeah... could be rocket fuel for a bit. Especially if the Fed goes into a holding pattern on rates.
 

Zed

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Anywhere.... If they stick around in those bonds they ain't getting nuffin back. When they realize that the game is over.

Yes but... you can't just pick up the phone and place billions in most other markets without becoming the market and ensuring a loss.
 

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.what are all those billions truly worth? in the great scheme of things!!
 

Zed

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Yes, exactly. And hence why I call that the start of the hyper-inflation.

The US can't hyper-inflate until it either loses reserve status or it has printed enough to force the rest of the world into a hyper-inflation. The periphery melts down first. The US can go nutz for a long time before it gets there.... I suspect that your political scene wouldn't bear the load of spawning a hyper-inflation. It's creaking already after a little inflation, too much more would be political suicide. I doubt it's coming anytime soon, not with the current global structure.
 

Zed

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Down here in the Land of Oz my Goldie Lox Stox are off ~2% in anticipation of the dreaded rate rise!

Meanz Beanz
 

Zed

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If you think this is a fool proof all out mortgage the farm and buy signal remember that Barron's put a bull on the front cover of its weekly the exact bottom in 1982. Still we might be at or are very close to a bottom.


View attachment 273686

Just perfect.
 

Lancers32

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The US can't hyper-inflate until it either loses reserve status or it has printed enough to force the rest of the world into a hyper-inflation. The periphery melts down first. The US can go nutz for a long time before it gets there.... I suspect that your political scene wouldn't bear the load of spawning a hyper-inflation. It's creaking already after a little inflation, too much more would be political suicide. I doubt it's coming anytime soon, not with the current global structure.
Yes.
 

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Uglytruth

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In the last week I've had 3 people talking about inflation........ mostly food inflation but they all said the same thing. "When the stock market comes back". Seems they are all sitting pat for a fleecing & maybe don't know there are other options. Then there is the guy from work with 1.5m that's down over 400K to 1.05m........... and the other that has pulled back to his 600K in a money market out of stocks & is sleeping well.

At what point is the pain too much and they bail? Is it when the market goes under 30K or he goes under 1M or?
 

Lancers32

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Well up off the bottom now and did dip under 8 bucks but if we enter a cold period and get another leg up in the commods this might not be the worst place for a few shekels.


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Zed

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At what point is the pain too much and they bail?

I think it's going to take time, the market has been educated to the now accepted FACT that it always gets rescued and always comes back. That's why I tend to believe it will be a long grinding bear with a series of lower highs and not a major capitulation and crash to the low.

Now I've said that you can watch the market jump out the proverbial window!
 

Cigarlover

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He says dollar is in demand worldwide right now and there is a shortage of them. Thus the reason the dollar is strong.
 
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Cigarlover

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In the last week I've had 3 people talking about inflation........ mostly food inflation but they all said the same thing. "When the stock market comes back". Seems they are all sitting pat for a fleecing & maybe don't know there are other options. Then there is the guy from work with 1.5m that's down over 400K to 1.05m........... and the other that has pulled back to his 600K in a money market out of stocks & is sleeping well.

At what point is the pain too much and they bail? Is it when the market goes under 30K or he goes under 1M or?
I have a family member down about 3 million right now. They dont care. They are looking 5 years out before they need any of the money. I'm just not sure things will be back to normal in 5 years.
 

Zed

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He says dollar is in demand worldwide right now and there is a shortage of them. Thus the reason the dollar is strong.

Yup... Marty A is so right. If the USD dies it dies in strength before it's final decline. I'm not holding my breath for that.
 

Lancers32

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He says dollar is in demand worldwide right now and there is a shortage of them. Thus the reason the dollar is strong.
See Brent Johnson Dollar Milkshake guy who is a lot less negative on our position in the world.
 
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Zed

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See Brent Johnson Dollar Milkshake guy who is a lot less negative on our position in the world.

Every other major economy is a shit show, the USA has a number of natural advantages and the most developed financial system. It can take some heavy blows and still look better than the rest. This will not be fun but the USA is a relatively good bet in the long run especially if in starts on-shoring in earnest. It could work out quite well say +10 years down the track.
 
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Cigarlover

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Yup... Marty A is so right. If the USD dies it dies in strength before it's final decline. I'm not holding my breath for that.
Thats why I think metals are going lower here. Until the dollar turn its down for the metals.

Powell wants to get rid of this excess liquidity and kill inflation. This excess liquidity driving inflation started in 2020 so my guess is he wants to see the markets back at those levels.
 

Voodoo

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In the last week I've had 3 people talking about inflation........ mostly food inflation but they all said the same thing. "When the stock market comes back". Seems they are all sitting pat for a fleecing & maybe don't know there are other options. Then there is the guy from work with 1.5m that's down over 400K to 1.05m........... and the other that has pulled back to his 600K in a money market out of stocks & is sleeping well.

At what point is the pain too much and they bail? Is it when the market goes under 30K or he goes under 1M or?

See, this is the problem.... Those money market funds are probably not that "safe". People just don't know any better, yet. But who wants to guess how much of those assets are in bonds and/or worse rehypotheicated crap?
 

Zed

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Thats why I think metals are going lower here. Until the dollar turn its down for the metals.

I'm not so sure about that. When stocks and bonds look like so so value who you gonna call? IMO Inflation changes the story... but you may be right.
 

Cigarlover

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Every other major economy is a shit show, the USA has a number of natural advantages and the most developed financial system. It can take some heavy blows and still look better than the rest. This will not be fun but the USA is a relatively good bet in the long run especially if in starts on-shoring in earnest. I could work out quite well say +10 years down the track.
Yea shitloads of spending right now by our Gov to bring companies back to the US. Billions for chip manufacturers, billions for the green new deal and big Pharma.
Us taxpayers had to fund them in tax credits when they moved offshore and now we get to build them new plants. In return we get higher taxes and inflation.
 

Zed

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Powell wants to get rid of this excess liquidity and kill inflation. This excess liquidity driving inflation started in 2020 so my guess is he wants to see the markets back at those levels.

I think the feds actions hit market inflation and much less so inflation on the street. We will see...
 

Lancers32

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I'm not so sure about that. When stocks and bonds look like so so value who you gonna call? IMO Inflation changes the story... but you may be right.
Like you have stated the DX and the metals can rise together. The most unexpected thing right now is a monster rally from here maybe not the resumption of the bull but a good sustained BMR.