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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Yea shitloads of spending right now by our Gov to bring companies back to the US. Billions for chip manufacturers, billions for the green new deal and big Pharma.
Us taxpayers had to fund them in tax credits when they moved offshore and now we get to build them new plants. In return we get higher taxes and inflation.

I think those $ will hit the CPI even if the market is falling.
 

Zed

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The most unexpected thing right now is a monster rally from here maybe not the resumption of the bull but a good sustained BMR.

I can see the fuel being there for that.

Do we get the start gun today?
 

Cigarlover

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I'm not so sure about that. When stocks and bonds look like so so value who you gonna call? IMO Inflation changes the story... but you may be right.
I sold some miners yesterday just to raise my cash position a little more so I'm betting on being right. Doesn't mean I will be though. LOL. So far it looks like I should have held them.

Stocks are already down quite a bit. Metals followed them down, just not as far.
It's not an easy market to be in right now.
 
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Cigarlover

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Like you have stated the DX and the metals can rise together. The most unexpected thing right now is a monster rally from here maybe not the resumption of the bull but a good sustained BMR.
I'd take that. :)
 
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Voodoo

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I can see the fuel being there for that.

Do we get the start gun today?

It won't take much.



Ya, I'm a pyro... I want to burn it up.
 

Voodoo

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I see they are letting the metals run a bit today so they can smack it down and blame it on the interest rate decision. Has to at least look like selling because of interest rate hikes.

I do think there is potentially explosive setup beneath all these markets. Shorts are playing with fire.
 

Voodoo

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Yea shitloads of spending right now by our Gov to bring companies back to the US. Billions for chip manufacturers, billions for the green new deal and big Pharma.
Us taxpayers had to fund them in tax credits when they moved offshore and now we get to build them new plants. In return we get higher taxes and inflation.
Chip companies will create few jobs. It might help others move back but with a clean sheet of paper it will be automation / robot city & many unskilled worthless eaters still with nothing to do or any way to consume what is being built.

Tha is where mass death jabs comes in.
 

Lancers32

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Trading the bull/bear using the put/call ratio is tough now. Swings hard up to down daily depending upon market direction. Depends who you read whether you see more bulls than bears.
 

Lancers32

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Up down up would be very bullish for the metals today.
 

Voodoo

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Voodoo

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No discussion yet? FED raises another 75 basis point and the terminal rate around 4.5% Stocks go down but certainly not a plunge but woulda lookie there. Silver is still 19.49 up 30 cents. The dollar is also soaring and silver is UP.

Folks, get it now cause that tells you a ton.
 

Voodoo

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The report screams Stagflation. Which I think the metals might finally be seeing some people acknowledge.
 

Lancers32

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The report screams Stagflation. Which I think the metals might finally be seeing some people acknowledge.
I am leaning more bullish than bearish by a wide margin here but the pm complex has yet to prove itself. Unless you buy into some of these Elliot forecasts that see Gold declining for years and under 1K you have to be a buyer here. Preferably on weakness.
 

Lancers32

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If you think your favorite government won't/can't nationalize your favorite miner in the coming years think again.

 

Voodoo

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If you think your favorite government won't/can't nationalize your favorite miner in the coming years think again.


That company was beyond bankrupt because of the energy market hedging it was forced/did. But, yes, commies are dangerous.
 

Voodoo

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No discussion yet? FED raises another 75 basis point and the terminal rate around 4.5% Stocks go down but certainly not a plunge but woulda lookie there. Silver is still 19.49 up 30 cents. The dollar is also soaring and silver is UP.

Folks, get it now cause that tells you a ton.

To expand...this looks fargin outstanding to me.

1663790320526.png
1663790347553.png
1663790362032.png
 

Cigarlover

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No discussion yet? FED raises another 75 basis point and the terminal rate around 4.5% Stocks go down but certainly not a plunge but woulda lookie there. Silver is still 19.49 up 30 cents. The dollar is also soaring and silver is UP.

Folks, get it now cause that tells you a ton.
Dollar over 1.11 with the metals way up earlier.. At 1st I thought that finally the metals might be showing some strength and rising with the dollar but NUGT showed what this rally was made of. I guess I'm the contrarian around here but I just don't see the metals rising with a stronger dollar right now. Yes they can both rise together but taking what Powell said into account, I don't see the happening. If he keeps raising the dollar keeps rising. Unless something changes, that means the metals keep going lower.
Almost shorted NUGT at 25.60. Going forward I will be looking to day trade that one. See what happens tomorrow.
Looked like some fomo earlier today but looks like a bull trap.
 
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Lancers32

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That company was beyond bankrupt because of the energy market hedging it was forced/did. But, yes, commies are dangerous.
Everyone is power is dangerous.
 

Lancers32

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Dollar over 1.11 with the metals way up earlier.. At 1st I thought that finally the metals might be showing some strength and rising with the dollar but NUGT showed what this rally was made of. I guess I'm the contrarian around here but I just don't see the metals rising with a stronger dollar right now. Yes they can both rise together but taking what Powell said into account, I don't see the happening. If he keeps rising the dollar keeps rising. Unless something changes, that means the metals keep going lower.
Almost shorted NUGT at 25.60. Going forward I will be looking to day trade that one. See what happens tomorrow.
Looked like some fomo earlier today but looks like a bull trap.
Up down up is bullish just like today. Long as we hold the bottom from last week we go higher.
 

Voodoo

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Dollar over 1.11 with the metals way up earlier.. At 1st I thought that finally the metals might be showing some strength and rising with the dollar but NUGT showed what this rally was made of. I guess I'm the contrarian around here but I just don't see the metals rising with a stronger dollar right now. Yes they can both rise together but taking what Powell said into account, I don't see the happening. If he keeps rising the dollar keeps rising. Unless something changes, that means the metals keep going lower.
Almost shorted NUGT at 25.60. Going forward I will be looking to day trade that one. See what happens tomorrow.
Looked like some fomo earlier today but looks like a bull trap.

If you want to try and pick up pennies in front of a steamroller be my guest.
 

Lancers32

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The way we sold off late I think you get a chance to buy tomorrow if you want.
 

Cigarlover

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If you want to try and pick up pennies in front of a steamroller be my guest.
I still have plenty of miners in my portfolio. I'll be riding them down for the long haul.

Overall the miners gave up most if not all of their gains today and at a quick glance a couple of the majors finished in the red. I really want to be as bullish as everyone else here. Not counting real estate I have a large portion of my money tied up in physical. I'm well up on it since most was bought 2007-2014. Of the money I have in the market, I am 50% cash right now and the rest is all in on miners except for 1 pot stock and 1 option play.
 

Cigarlover

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The way we sold off late I think you get a chance to buy tomorrow if you want.
Most of the miners charts look similar today. Nice run up, then flatlined then gave it all back.
Looking at the big picture I look at the weekly chart for the gold futures. Right now at a key support level and I am waiting for that to resolve one way or the other. A move above 17.50 or so on strong volume and I would be getting excited. Right now 1661 is holding and it looks like buyers keep coming in at that level. However if we break below that level I will be shorting and making money on the downside to offset my losses in the miners.
Screen Shot 2022-09-21 at 4.33.54 PM.png
 

Voodoo

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I still have plenty of miners in my portfolio. I'll be riding them down for the long haul.

Overall the miners gave up most if not all of their gains today and at a quick glance a couple of the majors finished in the red. I really want to be as bullish as everyone else here. Not counting real estate I have a large portion of my money tied up in physical. I'm well up on it since most was bought 2007-2014. Of the money I have in the market, I am 50% cash right now and the rest is all in on miners except for 1 pot stock and 1 option play.

I would much prefer selling some covered calls or perhaps buying a few puts for a hedge. Shorting a 2x ETF strikes me as too risky for a hedge.
 

Lancers32

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Armstrong 2023 year from hell. IF Crude can close the year over $99 we will see Crude over $200 next year. SM weak into the end of year Gold might trade into the $1500's. He was calling for a low this quarter for Gold so we will see. Last week's bottom needs to hold after all that was an undercut to begin with.
 

Zed

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Chip companies will create few jobs. It might help others move back but with a clean sheet of paper it will be automation / robot city & many unskilled worthless eaters still with nothing to do or any way to consume what is being built.

Tha is where mass death jabs comes in.

Similar fears were expressed back around the industrial revolution. The reality was that new previously unimagined jobs appeared over time and we all moved forward.
 

Zed

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Armstrong 2023 year from hell. IF Crude can close the year over $99 we will see Crude over $200 next year. SM weak into the end of year Gold might trade into the $1500's. He was calling for a low this quarter for Gold so we will see. Last week's bottom needs to hold after all that was an undercut to begin with.

If WTI is $200 then everything that has energy imbedded has to be higher? No? Long commodities.
 

Lancers32

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Similar fears were expressed back around the industrial revolution. The reality was that new previously unimagined jobs appeared over time and we all moved forward.
Or full on Ex Machina.
 

Lancers32

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If WTI is $200 then everything that has energy imbedded has to be higher? No? Long commodities.
Throw in a mini Ice Age and there you go.
 

Lancers32

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This is what happens when it goes freaky deaky. Oh Canada WTF. :belly laugh:



 

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Anybody playing the volatility markets? I picked up a stink bid earlier today, which I should have sold the farm and bought tons more of.
I think the bottom is in and when shit gets crazy, volatility will be off the charts.
Screen Shot 2022-09-21 at 6.44.18 PM.png
 

Voodoo

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If WTI is $200 then everything that has energy imbedded has to be higher? No? Long commodities.

Yes, especially energy and food. The last things you will cut would be food, then heat. And most of the food requires huge amounts of Diesel and Fertilizer from Nat Gas.
 

Zed

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Some Hedgeye gold for free, you might wanna watch it a few times...

 

Zed

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Most of the miners charts look similar today. Nice run up, then flatlined then gave it all back.
Looking at the big picture I look at the weekly chart for the gold futures. Right now at a key support level and I am waiting for that to resolve one way or the other. A move above 17.50 or so on strong volume and I would be getting excited. Right now 1661 is holding and it looks like buyers keep coming in at that level. However if we break below that level I will be shorting and making money on the downside to offset my losses in the miners.
View attachment 273753

GDX put in an 'indecision day' on reasonable volume. Looks to me for all the world like it is trying to put in a bottom here. On a monthly chart a strong finish to this month puts us around a trend support level that is looking like holding.

FWIW Hedgeye have us in what they call Quad 4 globally.

Growth slowing, Inflation slowing (QUAD 4)

Gold is a Quad 4 asset

Quad 4 Investing Playbook: Asset Allocation


Quad 4 economic regimes have historically proven negative for the broader equity market, but specifically the high-flying, momentum driven sectors like Technology (XLK) and small caps like the Russell 2000 (IWM). Meanwhile, defensive sectors like Utilities (XLU), REITS (VNQ) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are outperformers.


Sticking with the equity side, as the Market transitions into #Quad4, here are the Top 3 Factor Exposure Shorts/Underweights:


  1. Momentum
  2. High Beta
  3. Secular Growers

Here are 3 of the Top 4 Factor Exposure Longs/Overweights that you should be buying on dips in #Quad4:


  1. Low Beta
  2. Dividend Yield
  3. Quality

Outside of equities, Treasury bonds (TLT and SHY) and Gold (GLD) are core long allocations. Given Quad 4’s negative implications for risk assets, it’s no surprise that High-Yield Credit (JNK) is also a great allocation on the short side.


Finally, rounding out the Quad 4 asset allocation is foreign exchange, where you want to be long U.S. Dollars (UUP), because it is a dominant global reserve currency and is structurally in demand in a liquidity crunch.


The U.S. has been in persistent Growth Slowing mode since Q4 2018. This explains why Gold (GLD), Treasury bonds (TLT), REITS (VNQ) and Utilities (XLU) have been our core long ideas since then.


Here’s the performance since September 28, 2018:
  • Gold (GLD): 35.9%
  • Utilities (XLU): 29.2%
  • Treasury bonds (TLT): 28.8%
  • REITS (VNQ): 18.4%

Versus…
  • S&P 500: 7.3%
  • Dow: 5.9%
  • Russell 2000: -7.3%

Growth slowing allocations have been beating U.S. equities for some time now.