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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Throw in a mini Ice Age and there you go.

Yep well... if history rhymes it is on the cards.

Psssst... tell them it's the freakin sun! LOL.
 

Zed

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Rafi thinks deeper than most...

Someone is threatened in silver. This might get ugly but it should pop like cork when ready. Relative strength appears to be coming back to silver.
 

Zed

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Stanley Druckenmiller thinks the next 16 years will mirror 1966-1982 so sideways on balance at best.

Nominally sideways inflation adjusted backwards is probably the easier sell politically.
 

Jodster

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Nominally sideways inflation adjusted backwards is probably the easier sell politically.
Screen Shot 2022-09-21 at 7.39.55 PM.png
 

Uglytruth

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Stanley Druckenmiller thinks the next 16 years will mirror 1966-1982 so sideways on balance at best.
How was profits made from 66 to 82?

1979 to 1984 simple CD's would work great.
What was hot from 66-79?
 

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Cigarlover

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I bonds are paying almost 10% right now. 10k max per person per annum. Rate readjusts every 6 months. No state or local taxes. There is a minimum holding period though.
 

Lancers32

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Tested the Gold $1650 level again overnight. If the boyz try to smash the metals on the NY open and the miners drop a good amount I will add SILJ. Stop under $8.30 level. We are now 25 months plus into this bear/correction. $1550 is the halfway point of the range off the $1K+ bottom to the Aug 2020 top. That was a double top so the downside has to be respected anything can and will happen.
 
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Lancers32

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Frick turning over in his grave. Judge 60 home runs in 148 games.
 

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OMG.

[Man, I can't keep up with you guys.]

TNX_2022-09-22_10-54-58.png
 

dpong

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I'm thinking liquidity trap.
 

Voodoo

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Seems like the Hedge Fund/Market makers and all their naked shorting could be causing that liquidity to evaporate.
 

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How about a quickie? A fast north move and probably finish up about 10:30 EST tomorrow. Looks about a .55 cent swing.

Anglogold.png
 
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Lancers32

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Technicals that worked in bull markets don't work in bear markets.
 

Uglytruth

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Can someone explain why trend lines, higher highs or lows, channels, or bounce off off support has ANYTHING to do with the market?
If a stock is dropping like this why did it go up? I see the trend but I don't understand how a number is related to a line for support to the real world and business trends. On what timeline chart does this work? If you change the length of the chart or dull the candles it seems most everything in hindsight is logical but I can't for the life of me understand why a line and a candle and a business work the way that they do.

1663888820663.png
 

Zed

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Unimaginable the Dollar could exceed 1980's highs?


View attachment 273828

Given the much lower debt in the global system 80's highs would only happen if we are totally broken... IMO that would be currency reset territory. Given the rise in debt since the 2000/01 highs @ 120 I suspect that high will be knocking on disasters door as was the 80's high. That is to say that I think the longer this goes on in terms of growing debt the lower the USD high we can tolerate. My expectation has been that between 110 & 120 there is a puke point.

My 2c worth.
 
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Lancers32

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Given the debt in the global system 80's highs would only happen if we are totally broken... IMO that would be currency reset territory. Given the rise in debt since the 2000/01 highs @ 120 I suspect that high will be knocking on disasters door as was the 80's high. That is to say that I think the longer this goes on in terms of growing debt the lower the USD high we can tolerate. My expectation has been that between 110 & 120 there is a puke point.

My 2c worth.
Dollar goes to 165 or whatever system breaks they usher in their digital currency. I don't see it going that high really.
 
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Lancers32

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Can someone explain why trend lines, higher highs or lows, channels, or bounce off off support has ANYTHING to do with the market?
If a stock is dropping like this why did it go up? I see the trend but I don't understand how a number is related to a line for support to the real world and business trends. On what timeline chart does this work? If you change the length of the chart or dull the candles it seems most everything in hindsight is logical but I can't for the life of me understand why a line and a candle and a business work the way that they do.

View attachment 273830
I don't like diagonal lines to begin with. I don't think stock prices really have anything to do with how a business is doing either at least not in the strictest sense. Justin Mamis has a couple of good paperbacks How to Buy When to Sell if you are interested in how all this might work. Doesn't work all of the time it is an art as much as it is a science. No one is right all of the time.
 

Zed

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GC-D-20220923.png


I kinda thought that I'd said this before but here is a chart...

1. We have relative strength in silver
2. Gold stocks have been getting firmer against gold since a low point in May
3. Gold stocks as a group are knocking on the door of relative strength, they are basically now moving with gold and poised to move to outperform.
4. A number of gold stocks are breaking out... see @FFA's posts.
5. Gold's price momentum has been diverging from it's price action. Basically strengthening against gold.
6. Golds shorter term momentum is on the cusp of breaking its down trend.
7. Golds down trend line sits @ ~ 1740 given the typical speed of a bounce in gold. Target date is ~ 10/6

You have recent support as a stoploss and you have a clear stage one target here. If you are into picking bottoms this looks like a good candidate. If not wait for 1740 to break to the upside and see what the picture looks like then.

Gold stocks are cheap here, that will not last... even if it is just a revert to mean trade and not the "big one".
 
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Zed

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Can someone explain why trend lines, higher highs or lows, channels, or bounce off off support has ANYTHING to do with the market?
If a stock is dropping like this why did it go up? I see the trend but I don't understand how a number is related to a line for support to the real world and business trends. On what timeline chart does this work? If you change the length of the chart or dull the candles it seems most everything in hindsight is logical but I can't for the life of me understand why a line and a candle and a business work the way that they do.

View attachment 273830

It's not directly about the reality of the business, it is about the markets perception of the future prospects of the business given it's current price. The market is a discounting mechanism that is always trying to price the future today. e.g. If you buy a house today and you firmly believe that in 12 months time prices will be 10% lower... What price do you offer? The 12 months out price in my case.

Basically it's a popularity contest about future prospects, inefficient yes but the best thing we have. It was better when the markets were less public and more professional. Wider access has fostered a bigger manic depressive cycle, the public are basically clueless trading on emotion and relying on shill analytics. Less public = better chances... big lows = less public. On the upside follow the heard but spook early, if you are wrong you can always go again. This will also be true for gold at some point! Ranting on now... solly.

What we a looking for is a price point @ which the market will change it's mind. Support/resistance levels are merely those price levels that the volume balance between sellers and buyers changes. They express themselves on a chart. Trendlines tend to come about because buyers or sellers will tend to act at relative levels... e.g. I went long, the market handed me my head (scared me), we got a relief rally and I am back to 90% of my initial position, good enough for me I'm out. That then becomes a lower peak and the process repeats. Same on the upside with buy the dip.

I don't like diagonal lines to begin with. I don't think stock prices really have anything to do with how a business is doing either at least not in the strictest sense. Justin Mamis has a couple of good paperbacks How to Buy When to Sell if you are interested in how all this might work. Doesn't work all of the time it is an art as much as it is a science. No one is right all of the time.

Diagonal lines, like many patterns have become less relevant as more people have had access to charts. The more people that use any given chart tool the worse it works. T/A discounts itself as the crowd second guesses itself. At least that is my observation/opinion over the 30 odd years I've been looking at charts. So yeah, I tend to weight outright levels as being a better indication than a diagonal, I prefer to see a resistance/support intersection with a diagonal line.
 

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Zed

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End the Fed going mainstream...

 

Cigarlover

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View attachment 273833

I kinda thought that I'd said this before but here is a chart...

1. We have relative strength in silver
2. Gold stocks have been getting firmer against gold since a low point in May
3. Gold stocks as a group are knocking on the door of relative strength, they are basically now moving with gold and poised to move to outperform.
4. A number of gold stocks are breaking out... see @FFA's posts.
5. Gold's price momentum has been diverging from it's price action. Basically strengthening against gold.
6. Golds shorter term momentum is on the cusp of breaking its down trend.
7. Golds down trend line sits @ ~ 1740 given the typical speed of a bounce in gold. Target is ~ 10/6

You have recent support as a stoploss and you have a clear stage one target here. If you are into picking bottoms this looks like a good candidate. If not wait for 1740 to break to the upside and see what the picture looks like then.

Gold stocks are cheap here, that will not last... even if it is just a revert to mean trade and not the "big one".
Gold is definitely at a key resistance level. It really feels like it wants to go but keeps getting shut down with the strength in the dollar. For that reason I did not short NUGT today. Also looking at that weekly chart just looks like the upside potential is far greater than the downside.

How does Powells speech factor into all of this Ned? He wants to keep raising another 100-125 basis points by the end of the year and wants to make any rise in the rates prolonged. He wants and expects lower GDP growth throughout the coming year and maybe back to 2% sometime in 2024. Unemployment is low. There are 2 jobs for every person looking for 1. Wages are high and going higher for now. He wants higher unemployment to kill wage demand as well as supply demand. It seems like he really wants everything to deflate. Housing, stock market, GDP and I assume the price of gold and silver.
I'm not smart enough to know if he can accomplish this, just repeating what he said yesterday.
So, do you see the dollar going lower in the face of all of this or is this one of those times when you see the dollar and gold climbing higher together. Both of them taking a safe haven status so to speak? Gold is certainly hanging onto this key level.
 

Zed

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UST30-M-20220923.png


As is the chart... multiyear down trend on rates appears to have broken. Powell's target rate seems to be where resistance should be on this chart, into the low 4% range. Then we get a pull back in rates? Back of the trend line is in the 2's after that? Even at this mad rate of change it looks like rates could be up into early 23. Marty A's call for a train-wreck next year is looking good from this vantage point!
 
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Zed

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Gold is definitely at a key resistance level. It really feels like it wants to go but keeps getting shut down with the strength in the dollar. For that reason I did not short NUGT today. Also looking at that weekly chart just looks like the upside potential is far greater than the downside.

How does Powells speech factor into all of this Ned? He wants to keep raising another 100-125 basis points by the end of the year and wants to make any rise in the rates prolonged. He wants and expects lower GDP growth throughout the coming year and maybe back to 2% sometime in 2024. Unemployment is low. There are 2 jobs for every person looking for 1. Wages are high and going higher for now. He wants higher unemployment to kill wage demand as well as supply demand. It seems like he really wants everything to deflate. Housing, stock market, GDP and I assume the price of gold and silver.
I'm not smart enough to know if he can accomplish this, just repeating what he said yesterday.
So, do you see the dollar going lower in the face of all of this or is this one of those times when you see the dollar and gold climbing higher together. Both of them taking a safe haven status so to speak? Gold is certainly hanging onto this key level.

I suspect that they are looking at the wrong numbers and will do what they say resulting in major pain in 23. It plays as per the 30Y chart above is my best guess.

From what I have seen Covid bought forward an issue that always existed but was a little way out. That is to say that a large number of boomers got worried about mortality during the pandemic and moved retirement 5 to 10 years forward. Here we have lost people across the board, medical staff to truckers. The thing is that these guys were doing jobs that the young don't want so it has left a gap and upwards pressure on wages. Long distance truckers are still in shortage here despite a 50% wage hike... no amount will bring the boomers back, they are in the fuck it I've got enough and life is short camp. While the following generations will not drive trucks until the only choice is starvation. Same for many other number of dirty or boring jobs! IMO it is not that simple to fix this employment issue with monetary policy, as much as anything it is a social dislocation driven by demographics and a pandemic. Shit has changed! I think they will kill the economy before they will fix the wage issue because they misunderstand the real drivers.

Anyway... by the looks of it the cracks might be big enough by early 23 to flip the Fed, then the USD turns south for a bit --> best guess. FWIW that also looks like DXY 120ish on a monthly chart @ current pace.

$64Q is does gold front run this?
 

Zed

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My ASX Goldies are flat today.
 

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$64Q is does gold front run this?
I think it does. I would think as the inflation numbers start coming down, the market will anticipate, at the very least, a pause. If cracks start forming then for sure Wall Street and the hedges will be all over it and start driving gold up. If Powell doesn't break things then I suspect a slow rise in the price over time until he reverse course.
Hard to imagine rate increases of this magnitude, with the US having 30 plus trillion in debt, and not have anything break.
 
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Zed

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Some Hedgeye gold for free, you might wanna watch it a few times...


If you guys didn't get to watching this one thing that was said that really hit the target for me, was --> The Feds #1 job is to insure that the US government can still finance itself. All else is secondary and frankly not relevant. They will crush the man on the street if that is what it takes because the government 'running out of runway' trumps all other concerns.
 
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Uglytruth

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If they had not lowered interest rates so low would things have been any worse? Say let them run at 7% with a + - of 3% so they could lower to 4% and raise to 10%?

Is this a political move where the ds knows they will get crushed in November & are sabotaging the future?
 
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Zed

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GameFi the gateway drug for mass crypto adoption?