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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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If they had not lowered interest rates so low would things have been any worse? Say let them run at 7% with a + - of 3% so they could lower to 4% and raise to 10%?

Is this a political move where the ds knows they will get crushed in November & are sabotaging the future?

We should just let the market run the rates to whatever level clears. Anything else is a delusion that will have consequences sooner or later. JMO etc.
 

Zed

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Lancers32

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Taking a bit of a beating this morning so far. We need to turn this around relatively soon.
 

Cigarlover

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Dollar over 112. Gold hitting yearly lows. Have to go to 3 year chart to find the next support level. 1575 or thereabouts.
 

Lancers32

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Dollar over 112. Gold hitting yearly lows. Have to go to 3 year chart to find the next support level. 1575 or thereabouts.
Yeah actually a bit lower than that but I think it finds support above $1600 at least for now. Silver has a long way to go to smell that last bottom. The stock/stocks I am interested in have quite a ways to fall before they reach previous bottoms.

SILJ
MAG
SAND
HL
 

Lancers32

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When you are flush out of cash to buy the bottom.


FdRLV3eXkAEjjxY.jpg
 

Cigarlover

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Yeah actually a bit lower than that but I think it finds support above $1600 at least for now. Silver has a long way to go to smell that last bottom. The stock/stocks I am interested in have quite a ways to fall before they reach previous bottoms.

SILJ
MAG
SAND
HL
I'm looking at those as well. SILV as well. Also want to add more EXK at some point. The way it's going might be 99 cents. Pick some up at the dollar store.
EXK and some jr's are all I am holding for now. I'm down so much in them it doesn't even matter anymore. LOL.


Anyone understand NUGT? It doesn't seem to conform to the gold price. Looking back 3 years it traded much higher with a lower gold price. I'm trying to understand why.
Screen Shot 2022-09-23 at 7.38.24 AM.png
 

Lancers32

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Cigar those leveraged funds are good for scalping and short term trades long term the prices never make any sense. I think it was David Tice who ran the Prudent Bear Fund senior now so you know the memory fades said of his leveraged bear fund it would ultimately go to zero. So in short stuff like that and for Silver AGQ long term the price would never make sense.
 

Lancers32

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IF there was someplace to go I would get the F out of here so GD fast.


 

dpong

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I suspect that they are looking at the wrong numbers and will do what they say resulting in major pain in 23. It plays as per the 30Y chart above is my best guess.

From what I have seen Covid bought forward an issue that always existed but was a little way out. That is to say that a large number of boomers got worried about mortality during the pandemic and moved retirement 5 to 10 years forward. Here we have lost people across the board, medical staff to truckers. The thing is that these guys were doing jobs that the young don't want so it has left a gap and upwards pressure on wages. Long distance truckers are still in shortage here despite a 50% wage hike... no amount will bring the boomers back, they are in the fuck it I've got enough and life is short camp. While the following generations will not drive trucks until the only choice is starvation. Same for many other number of dirty or boring jobs! IMO it is not that simple to fix this employment issue with monetary policy, as much as anything it is a social dislocation driven by demographics and a pandemic. Shit has changed! I think they will kill the economy before they will fix the wage issue because they misunderstand the real drivers.

Anyway... by the looks of it the cracks might be big enough by early 23 to flip the Fed, then the USD turns south for a bit --> best guess. FWIW that also looks like DXY 120ish on a monthly chart @ current pace.

$64Q is does gold front run this?
Nicely reasoned!
 
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jelly

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Another 5% down day for Goldies. This is starting to become the norm
 

Lancers32

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This guy is being compared to Churchill on the MSM believer websites.

FB-IMG-1663879733306.jpg
 

BigJim#1-8

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Whole lotta' red.
 

dpong

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RUN AWAY!!
 

Goldhedge

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Shanghai Gold Price Premium Soars to Near $50 Over London Price.​

 

Voodoo

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Man the British Pound is just evaporating. Not sure what caused this today.

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Uglytruth

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My bank whose rates are always competitive locally raised 30 year rates from 6.5 yesterday to 7 today
So a .75% increase and they only raised .50%.......... means they are digging into profits to be competitive............ or were making crazy margins at 0%.
 

Lancers32

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There are your bullish engulfings from last week.
 

Jodster

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There are your bullish engulfings from last week.
Lancers, explain a bit more for us dummies.
I see a lot more pain ahead. Holding my cash and watching the few socks I have crash.
Good news is my stink bids are getting hit. On the job site and watching the phone notices come in ...

0ADE1855-0D45-4B98-A34B-6900BA8AB698.jpeg
 

Au-myn

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I'm enjoying the sell-off in the general markets with several Puts I purchased last week. One as an example is MFC. I purchased MAR 23 12 Puts.

A High Pole followed by a Bearish Signal formation sell signal at 16.75 on this small scale (3x.25) P & F chart.

mfc2.png
 

Lancers32

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Lancers, explain a bit more for us dummies.
I see a lot more pain ahead. Holding my cash and watching the few socks I have crash.
Good news is my stink bids are getting hit. On the job site and watching the phone notices come in ...

View attachment 273914


See that long green candle from last week?


PSLV_2022-09-23_13-17-43.png
 

Voodoo

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Cigarlover

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I see a lot more pain ahead.
I see it as well. This is just getting started IMO. Unless something breaks we are headed back to somewhere around or maybe 10% above 2020 lows. It's not just the initial rate hikes. As I said yesterday, Powell is saying another 100-125 basis point increase just for this year alone.
Once all of these hikes start showing up in various forms in the economy corp earnings are toast at least for 2-3 quarters. More downside pressure from that.

I see some on the inter webs are still saying the fed will pivot. I think they are just sucking the sheep into slaughter.
The only moves I made this week were selling my uranium stocks and 2 others. SILJ and SILC. Long term I want them all back but made the decision it was more relaxing to watch them tank if I wasn't in them. Dollar going to at least 1.15 and maybe 1.20.
 

Cigarlover

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Dollar over 1.11 with the metals way up earlier.. At 1st I thought that finally the metals might be showing some strength and rising with the dollar but NUGT showed what this rally was made of. I guess I'm the contrarian around here but I just don't see the metals rising with a stronger dollar right now. Yes they can both rise together but taking what Powell said into account, I don't see the happening. If he keeps raising the dollar keeps rising. Unless something changes, that means the metals keep going lower.
Almost shorted NUGT at 25.60. Going forward I will be looking to day trade that one. See what happens tomorrow.
Looked like some fomo earlier today but looks like a bull trap.
Pretty much a perfect call from 2 days ago. Just saying. :reading:
 

Uglytruth

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Once all of these hikes start showing up in various forms
Like a train. At least 6 months lag time before the caboose slows down....... same when they talk us out of this..... if they do....
 

Voodoo

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Man the British Pound is just evaporating. Not sure what caused this today.

View attachment 273912

This is interesting. I think this means we are seeing cracks starting to form in the flight to safety of bonds. Usually markets like to see big tax cuts, right? Strengthen the economy. But now the currency is freaking out because of a tax cut? Odd, clearly they are now starting to price in not having enough money to actually pay off the future debt. This is BIG change in psychology.

 

Voodoo

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Voodoo

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If you guys didn't get to watching this one thing that was said that really hit the target for me, was --> The Feds #1 job is to insure that the US government can still finance itself. All else is secondary and frankly not relevant. They will crush the man on the street if that is what it takes because the government 'running out of runway' trumps all other concerns.

No offense, but that guy was just the type of arrogant Hedge Fund guy that might just get obliterated this time. They admit they had no idea what a CDS even was when they went through 2008. They also disparaged retail the whole time and to some extent yes, they are a bunch of new players and too disposed to long only, but they are learning very quickly.

If this flips to a hyper-inflation / short squeeze he's gonna be buried.
 

Voodoo

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3rd one down but they all look like $hit honestly.

That is SLV. That doesn't look terrible. Not a perfect potential bottom but for a manipulated market I will take it.
 

Lancers32

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That is SLV. That doesn't look terrible. Not a perfect potential bottom but for a manipulated market I will take it.
I knew it was SLV. Now you can either see a retest of the bottom of last week's candle or you can see a very bearish M pattern forming. I don't know we could bounce from here or slightly lower metals miners etc but I would not buy a close like today would much rather miss than walk into a Monday bloodbath. We might at least be getting close to some sort of a capitulation with these downside gaps one or two more would be ideal. M pattern.


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