• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
  • There are no markets
  • "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

The Saudi-Iran Brewing War ~ Armstrong

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
31,529
Likes
39,982
Location
Rocky Mountains
#1
The Saudi-Iran Brewing War



The turmoil in the Middle East has been instigated in part by fiscal mismanagement. When the money was rolling in with high oil prices, it was assumed, as always, that whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion. Consequently, the government expanded their spending assuming money would continue to flow in. When oil broke, the fiscal mismanagement has been exposed for all to see if they care to look.

Falling oil prices have decimated revenues and trade in the region. Security worries about terrorism, particularly in the US, have led to cuts in airline routes. Then there has also been a long-running diplomatic and trade impasse between Saudi Arabia and its allies on the one hand, and Qatar on the other. Now the good-old-days of easy money and rapid growth has led to concerns about over-capacity, waste, and corruption that nobody cared about when money flowed like oil.

We are witnessing the beginning of a Middle East War between the Suni and Shite where the latter opposes kings and the state should be ruled by religious leaders. Iran and its Lebanese ally, the militant Shia group Hezbollah, claim the Saudis detained Mr. Saad El-Din Rafik Al-Hariri is a Lebanese-Saudi politician who has been the Prime Minister of Lebanon since December 2016. They allege that Saudi Arabia forced his resignation. Rex Tillerson said he had received assurances that Mr. Hariri was free to leave anytime.

According to Reuters, there was “no line-up of Saudi princes or ministry officials, as would typically greet a prime minister on an official visit to King Salman”, they reported with senior sources close to Hariri and top Lebanese political and security officials said. Reuters reported that Hariri’s phone was confiscated, and the next day he was forced to resign as prime minister in a statement broadcast by a Saudi-owned TV channel.

If this is true, then we are witnessing indeed a proxy-war emerging once again in Lebanon. This is a major struggle that is, in fact, seeking to reshape the Middle East with the war building between the conservative Sunni monarchy of Saudi Arabia and Shi‘ite revolutionary Iran. These two groups have already been in conflicts that have emerged in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, where they back opposing sides. This appears to be now expanding to destabilize Lebanon, where the Saudis have opposed the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, which is Lebanon’s main political power and part of the ruling coalition. The historical profile of war involving Lebanon is as follows:
  1. First Arab-Israeli War (1948–1949), which involved Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Transjordan, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.
  2. 1958 Lebanon Crisis
  3. Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990) Syrian occupation of Lebanon and the Israeli Security Zone
  4. South Lebanon Conflict (1985–2000)
  5. July War (2006) Hezbollah and Israel Stalemate
  6. Fatah al-Islam Rebellion (2007)
  7. 2008 conflict in Lebanon Hezbollah victory
  8. Syria War spillover in Lebanon (2011-2017)
Interesting enough, there have been eight events in 69 years and that works out to 8.625-year cycle on the surface without correlating it to history. According to Reuters, Hariri had to be removed because he was unwilling to confront Hezbollah.

What we can determine, is from a cyclically perspective, 2017 was the turning point from which we should expect to see a rise in the clash between Iran and Saudi groups.

When you turn the economy down, that is historically when tensions rise.
 

Silver

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
3,402
Likes
4,578
#5
If US doesn't directly intervene on the Saudi side, the Iranians will defeat them, and Israel.
 

andial

use default title
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 1, 2010
Messages
10,532
Likes
10,861
#7
A "neat idea" would be to officially support the Saudi Kingdom plus secretly sell arms to Iran via Israel and use the proceeds for our Central American projects.
 

Mujahideen

Black Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
9,581
Likes
16,111
Location
America!
#8
A "neat idea" would be to officially support the Saudi Kingdom plus secretly sell arms to Iran via Israel and use the proceeds for our Central American projects.
...hmm, sounds familiar for some reason. :ponder:
 

Mujahideen

Black Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
9,581
Likes
16,111
Location
America!
#9
Totally disagree regarding Israel. They won't hesitate to use nukes if Israel proper is threatened. Iran won't invade Israel across Iraq though...probably.
I agree. And I don’t think Iran is quite that stupid.
 

hoarder

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
10,440
Likes
9,696
Location
Montana
#10
US will sell lots of weapons on the Saudi side and the Russians will sell to the Iranians.
And the banksters will finance both sides.
 

Thecrensh

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
4,289
Likes
4,777
#11
A "neat idea" would be to officially support the Saudi Kingdom plus secretly sell arms to Iran via Israel and use the proceeds for our Central American projects.
Pure genius. The American people won't mind. Neither will the congress. It's probably best if Trump contacted a Marine Col to "head it up" and be the "fall guy" in case something bad happens. I like the way you think.
 

gringott

Killed then Resurrected
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 2, 2010
Messages
14,762
Likes
19,110
Location
You can't get there from here.
#12
Totally disagree regarding Israel. They won't hesitate to use nukes if Israel proper is threatened. Iran won't invade Israel across Iraq though...probably.
Israel better do some good downwind prediction charts before dropping any nukes.
 

Silver

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
3,402
Likes
4,578
#13
Totally disagree regarding Israel. They won't hesitate to use nukes if Israel proper is threatened. Iran won't invade Israel across Iraq though...probably.
Iran has a population of 80,000,000 and Israel has a population of 8,000,000 - without the US, Israel doesn't have a chance. Iran could possess nukes via Pakistan if Israel goes nuclear on them.

Anyway, Iran has 100's of thousands of missiles - many aimed at Dimona. Israel could not sustain a major war with Iran - they could not defeat Hezbollah, much less the entire nation of Persians.
 

Mujahideen

Black Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
9,581
Likes
16,111
Location
America!
#14
Iran could possess nukes via Pakistan if Israel goes nuclear on them.
This would never happen.

Pakistan is allied to the Saudis.
 

solarion

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Nov 25, 2013
Messages
5,050
Likes
7,614
#15
More concerned about Putin's response. If Israel gets involved, beyond their usual cowardly covert crap, so will a lot of other nations.

Is Russia really going to sit by and watch all their allies in the region toppled one after another by US/Israeli proxies?
 

Silver

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
3,402
Likes
4,578
#16
This would never happen.

Pakistan is allied to the Saudis.
Then North Korea - Iran is not some two bit country. They have many resources, universities, research faculties, nuclear power, etc. If nothing else, they could rain dirty missiles on them by the 100's.