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"The Seven Year Glitch" - Has The Time Come

Ahillock

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#1
"The Seven Year Glitch" - Has The Time Come
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/22/2015 17:43 -0400

A couple of interesting charts from State Street's "Mr Risk" Fred Goodwin, courtetsy of Saxo's Steen Jakobsen, both of which deal with business cycles, the first in the economy by way of the Citigroup surprise index which may have recently hit its local maximum and is now due for a substantial deterioration, in line with virtually all other high frequency economic indicators except for the job market which is kept afloat courtesy of low-quality, low paying waiters and bartender jobs (resulting in the "surprising" zero wage growth).




The second one is more suggestive: it looks at key events occuring in 7 year cycles, finds that every recent multiple of the year 2015 going back in 7 year increments brings with it some major adverse market event, and asks: is it 2015's turn?



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-22/seven-year-glitch-has-time-come
 

Ahillock

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An interesting post in one of the comments from the above article:

1901-1902 Shmitah

46% US Stock market value wiped out.

1916-1917 Shmitah

40% US Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world’s greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power.

1930-1931 Shmitah

86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.

1937-1938 Shmitah

50% US Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.

1944-1945 Shmitah

End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world’s superpower.

1965-1966 Shmitah

23% stock market value wiped out.

1972-1973 Shmitah

48% US Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. US Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). US lost its first war Vietnam…

1979-1980 Shmitah

US and global recession

1986-1987 Shmitah

33% US Stock market value wiped out.

1993-1994 Shmitah

Bond market crash.

2000-2001 Shmitah

37% US stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and global recession.

2007-2008 Shmitah

50% US Stock market value wiped out. Global recession from which there has yet been no recovery.

2014-2015 Shmitah
 

nickndfl

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#3
I haven't seen it blow up so sharply since 1987. I cannot make heads or tails of what's up. I think there is a battle behind the scenes in the Chinese market and it finally spilled over to the USA. Seems like the central bankers of both countries have lost control of their markets whether or not the USA or some other entity is behind the Chinese meltdown.

FYI, the Fed wants to raise rates so they have some ammunition for the next recession which is ordinarily cyclical. Times are not so great that they want to raise rates, but it's a technical tool. If they had not already lowered rates so much I would have predicted they would lower rates at their Fed next meeting to calm markets, but they can't because rates are almost near zero as it is. That's the predicament we are in right now.
 

Cigarlover

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#4
One thing to keep in mind is no matter how bad it got back in history, we are still here today. The markets may have crashed but they have also always recovered no matter how bad it got.
 

Thecrensh

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#5
But this time its different...

One thing to keep in mind is no matter how bad it got back in history, we are still here today. The markets may have crashed but they have also always recovered no matter how bad it got.
 

GOLDZILLA

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#6
IMHO, The markets are crashed purposely to remove the excess cash from the system that was created (Q.E. / printing presses/ relaxed loan requirements) to keep unexpected crashes from happening in the past and to give the masses a good reason to go to work every day. It's like poking a hole in the bottom of a bucket to keep it from overflowing.

At the same time, people in the know can not only avoid having their excess washed away, but by shorting the markets their wealth can actually grow.

It isn't hidden. Seems to me it is a way to take advantage of the average person while allowing the elites to continue their control/wealth.