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- Apr 1, 2010
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I think we all realize that no matter how this election turns out there will be "unrest" (violence). A situation like this is bound to cause the equity markets to shed risk in favor of flight-to-safety assets.
I have a large IAU position that got hammered Monday with the Pfizer announcement. My personal belief is that gold (and gold derrivatives) will spike with the coming boogaloo. I believe the violence will be perpetrated by Antifa against the news that Trump is the REAL winner of the election. But this spike will be short-lived because as soon as Trump is back at the helm of the world's greatest economy (with his enemies under his feet) risk assets (stocks) are going to sky-rocket and gold will be dumped again.
My plan is to sell the IAU after the social unrest spike. I expect this spike to peak when Trump declares it an "insurrection" and sends in the US Military to restore order. This peak will happen quickly because it will only take days (at the most) for the US Military to restore peace and order. The Insurrection Act(ion) will be my cue to sell.
I expect this to be north of the $2k mark. After I sell I will sit on dry powder until the reality of loose monetary policy begins to settle back into the market.
(BTW... I have a terrible record at predicting the future.)
So, how are you going to trade between now and the inauguration?
I have a large IAU position that got hammered Monday with the Pfizer announcement. My personal belief is that gold (and gold derrivatives) will spike with the coming boogaloo. I believe the violence will be perpetrated by Antifa against the news that Trump is the REAL winner of the election. But this spike will be short-lived because as soon as Trump is back at the helm of the world's greatest economy (with his enemies under his feet) risk assets (stocks) are going to sky-rocket and gold will be dumped again.
My plan is to sell the IAU after the social unrest spike. I expect this spike to peak when Trump declares it an "insurrection" and sends in the US Military to restore order. This peak will happen quickly because it will only take days (at the most) for the US Military to restore peace and order. The Insurrection Act(ion) will be my cue to sell.
I expect this to be north of the $2k mark. After I sell I will sit on dry powder until the reality of loose monetary policy begins to settle back into the market.
(BTW... I have a terrible record at predicting the future.)
So, how are you going to trade between now and the inauguration?