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Trading the upcoming social unrest

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Platinum Bling
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I think we all realize that no matter how this election turns out there will be "unrest" (violence). A situation like this is bound to cause the equity markets to shed risk in favor of flight-to-safety assets.

I have a large IAU position that got hammered Monday with the Pfizer announcement. My personal belief is that gold (and gold derrivatives) will spike with the coming boogaloo. I believe the violence will be perpetrated by Antifa against the news that Trump is the REAL winner of the election. But this spike will be short-lived because as soon as Trump is back at the helm of the world's greatest economy (with his enemies under his feet) risk assets (stocks) are going to sky-rocket and gold will be dumped again.

My plan is to sell the IAU after the social unrest spike. I expect this spike to peak when Trump declares it an "insurrection" and sends in the US Military to restore order. This peak will happen quickly because it will only take days (at the most) for the US Military to restore peace and order. The Insurrection Act(ion) will be my cue to sell.

I expect this to be north of the $2k mark. After I sell I will sit on dry powder until the reality of loose monetary policy begins to settle back into the market.

(BTW... I have a terrible record at predicting the future.)

So, how are you going to trade between now and the inauguration?
 

GOLDBRIX

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"What Me Worry" Flu News was just a hiccup, a tree shaker, and a chase the hot news event.
I converted all equities to CEF, GOLD, and a junior miner.
The next day this happened.
I been down this road before. IF I had waited one day I'd just have more shares of each.
I see recovery creeping in today, and a Loss in value is not a loss until you cash it out.
I am not going anywhere. The long term view as I see it: The World's economies are still going to fall apart. The IMF, ECB, FED, et al.... are all planning to circumvent the TBTF BANKING system to put money directly into the peoples hands. Money NOT based on credit. Money based on assets.
Very soon those with physical or in mines with physical will be in an advantageous spot over the rest of the market. JMHO.
DYODD
 
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Voodoo

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I don't know the market hates uncertainty typically and that's about as uncertain as anything I've ever seen. Plus you have a potential attack on the FED which is like the all knowing and powerful god to the markets now. Seems like you could have a serious drawdown if Trump actually wins, like the numbers should show.
 

GOLDBRIX

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I don't know the market hates uncertainty typically and that's about as uncertain as anything I've ever seen. Plus you have a potential attack on the FED which is like the all knowing and powerful god to the markets now. Seems like you could have a serious drawdown if Trump actually wins, like the numbers should show.
The market loves when politicians in DC are in turmoil. Just as this past 3 years the stock market thrived on Russia, Russia, Russia; Impeach Trump,....