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Trump's Economic & Winning Thread

louky

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Trump is setting up the environment for the average American who supports him to learn how the Fed ends business cycles. I can hear him now.... “We were doing 4.1% GDP, the best ever in US history, and the Fed raised rates too much. Did too much QT. I warned them. Believe me.”

 

louky

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Market response to the GDP data.
SPX -70 bps. Nasdaq -150 bps. Russell 2000 -190 bps. CRB -40 bps. DXY -10 bps. 10-yr note -2 bps.
Sounds like a bet against the Trump/Kudlow macro forecast.

Keep eating it up....
 

Irons

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revised numbers out yet?

This is what I get for being polite, twice. Oh well. So much for that. You came over here just to shit in this thread like an asshole.
Why don't you take your dumb ass back to your dumb threads that nobody reads and quit spewing bullshit negativity all over mine.

Oh, and have a nice day.

...........:give finger:
 

SongSungAU

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They Said This Day Would Never Come (1 min 12 sec):


Published on Jul 27, 2018 by GOP
 

Irons

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Irons

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BEA Estimates Quarter 2 GDP Growth 4.1%, Q1 Revised Upward 2.2% – Growth in Exports, U.S. Investment…
Posted on July 27, 2018by sundance

MAGAnomics
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the second quarter estimate in GDP growth at 4.1%, the highest rate of growth since 2014. Here’s the non-spin review along with an embed copy of the actual report [full pdf below] to include all tables:

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment; the net result of exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.



Along with the first estimate of Q2 GDP Growth at 4.1% (exceptionally strong), the BEA increased the Q1 growth rate to 2.2% (previously 2%).

Growth in U.S. exported goods was massive at 13.3% [Table 1, line 17] That is HUGE.
Growth in U.S. imported goods was very small at 1.0% [Table 1, Line 20] That is great.

The combination of massive increases in exports, and minimal growth in imports, led to a net increase in overall GDP from exports of 1.06%. [Table 2, line 45] Let that sink in.

WE DID NOT DEDUCT from GDP growth due to the net result of imports/exports. We actually exported more goods than we imported.



Additionally, financial media are trying to downplay the exceptional results by saying business bought material in advance of tariffs. This is FALSE. This is not even remotely true.

Net domestic inventories DROPPED by $6 billion. [Page 22, Table 3a, Line 40] There was no inventory buildup. Exactly the opposite is true. Inventories are lower/depleted…. this means future growth is forecast; ie. replenishment needed.

Current-dollar GDP increased 7.4 percent, or $361.5 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $20.4 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.3 percent, or $209.2 billion (table 1 and table 3A).

This means our overall U.S. economy is now EXCEEDING $20 TRILLION !!
Cue the Magic Wand !!

View this document on Scribd


.



GOP

@GOP



Democrats and many in media called it impossible. But once again, @realDonaldTrump has delivered. #MAGA
11:16 AM - Jul 27, 2018
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https://theconservativetreehouse.co...-upward-2-2-growth-in-exports-u-s-investment/
 

Scorpio

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for reference,

the total gdp was $15T not very long ago,
if true that it has eclipsed $20T, that is a massive increase, 33% increase

from this chart you can see the steadily rising gdp overall,
to be fair, it has been going on for some time now at a pretty consistent pace


gdp.jpg



https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp
 

Uglytruth

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Scorp can you post that chart on "max" setting please?
 

Scorpio

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hey ugly

on my computer it shows full size as I did post full rather than thumbnail,

I wonder why it is doing that to you? I have noticed it on some other persons pics if that is what you speak to and I always assumed they just posted the thumbnail.

You can find a full version at the link also I provided for it.
 

Scorpio

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here is another version, the first one was a screenshot and this one is a copy of the pic itself

you can see we have been rising consistently about $500B per year since 2009

which brings up a real interesting question,

if these supposed budget deficits are running avg $1T per year, and gdp is only going up $500B,

then where is the other $500B?????

and that is assuming .gov spending goes thru at 1:1 ratio, where the stories always told are that a dollar will bring back more than that in econ activity

edit actual calc is deficit ($780B) since 2007


when comparing .gov deficits to overall gdp growth, we are actually returning less than 1:1, or about 0.5:1
basically getting 50ct on the dollar for every dollar of debt created

give that one some thought for a minute............... when you consider we are running a negative return on dollars pumped into the economy

united-states-gdp.png
 
Last edited:

Uglytruth

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Sorry. Can you print max date / time line please.
 

Uglytruth

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Really does look like 1968-1972 ish was the beginning of the end........ Now if only gold was money.......


1532787756098.png



1532787916252.png
 

Joe King

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when comparing .gov deficits to overall gdp growth, we are actually returning less than 1:1, or about 0.5:1
basically getting 50ct on the dollar for every dollar of debt created
It's called being past the point of diminishing returns.

Or it could also be that more of the deficit spending was spent overseas?
 

Joe King

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Really does look like 1968-1972 ish was the beginning of the end........ Now if only gold was money.......


What it was (1968-1972-ish), was the point that the old way had to change in order to keep it all going. The previous change reflected in that chart started after all the crap FDR did during the GD. (1940-70) Once that monetary system became unworkable, Nixon made the next move. We're now nearing the end of that run. By looking at that chart, can you guess where the next "fix" will take us? Either to the Moon, or to our financial graves, is my guess.

One other point, keep in mind that it was made illegal for the common man to profit from the monetary systems mismanagement after their shenanigans during the GD.
 

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Two Important Words From Granite City Illinois: “We’re Back”…
Posted on July 28, 2018by sundance

Last week President Trump went to Granite City, Illinois, to celebrate the re-opening of a U.S. Steelworks manufacturing facility.
If you ever had any question about how important President Trump’s Main Street economic and manufacturing policies are to U.S. workers, well, just watch this interview with a formerly laid-off Granite City steelworker. [Dusty Keyboard Alert]:

.
“We’re back”
That’s the heartbeat of America right there!



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https://theconservativetreehouse.co...t-words-from-granite-city-illinois-were-back/
 

newmisty

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Despite Media Hysterics Trump’s Approval Remains Unchanged – And He Is Still 3 Points Ahead of Obama at Same Point In His Presidency
Despite the continued media hysterics over the past several months including the meltdown after President Trump said kind words to Vlad Putin — the US president’s approval rating remains unchanged since May.
View image on Twitter


Ryan James Girdusky@RyanGirdusky



Trump's approval rating remains basically unchanged since May 1st... think about how many times the media has freaked out about something over the last 2 months and realize that almost no one cares
4:09 PM - Jul 30, 2018
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And President Trump’s approval rating is currently at 47% on Rasmussen Reports.



https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...head-of-obama-at-same-time-in-his-presidency/
 

Irons

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MAGAnomics Second Quarter Wage Rate Growth 2.8% – Red, White and Blue Collar Growth Well Over 3%
Posted on July 31, 2018by sundance

For more than three decades all U.S. economic policy was elevating Wall Street and diminishing Main Street. As a result the middle America blue-collar workers have not had wage gains keeping up with inflation for over 30 years…. Then came the era of Trump.



– “Walking in a Winner Wonderland” –

More than two years ago CTH began discussing the ramifications to a new emphasis on the economy outlined as a possibility of candidate Donald Trump’s economic policy outlook. Within the overall discussion we walked through the anticipated changes possible if A.) Trump won the election, and B.) Trump began instituting Main Street economic policyahead of Wall Street policy (the past 30+ years).

We discussed the new dimension that would occur between two economic engines (Main Street -vs- Wall Street) as three decades of policy shifted. CTH outlined statistical and measurable KPIs that would become visible in the space between the policy shifts.

Part of those discussions focused on energy costs, product costs (we explained how inflation would be weird), and importantly, wage rates. It takes several months of policy emphasis (actual outcomes), before the labor market wage rates would grow. We anticipated seeing that impact in Q2 of 2018, which is April-June 2018. Well:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just released their second quarter analysis of wage and benefit rates for American workers. –SEE HERE– This is only the beginning of what is to come:


(pdf link)

Overall wage rate growth in Q2 now at 2.8% year-over-year. That is great news. However, the better news is the red emphasis, White and Blue Collar middle-class wage rate growth is well over 3%. The wage growth is broad-based amid almost all sectors. [Trucking and transportation at 3.4% (Table 8)]

As the wage rate increases, and as the economy expands, the governmental dependency model is reshaped and simultaneously receipts to the U.S. treasury improve.

More money into the U.S Treasury and less dependence on welfare/social service programs have a combined exponential impact. You gain a dollar, and have no need to spend a dollar – the saved sum is doubled. That is how the SSI and safety net programs are saved under President Trump.
When you elevate your economic thinking you begin to see that all of the “entitlements” or expenditures become more affordable with an economy that is fully functional.

As the GDP of the U.S. expands, so does our ability to meet the growing need of the retiring U.S. worker. We stop thinking about how to best divide a limited economic pie, and begin thinking about how many more economic pies we can create.
The economic models of the entire last generation+ are based on the assumptions of continuing globalist economics which advances, and has advanced, the interest of Wall Street over Main Street. They were driving a “service-driven economy” message.

The investing class economy, ie. another name for a ‘service-driven economy’, has been the only source of historic reference for approximately three decades. These talking heads convinced themselves that a “service driven economy” was the ONLY economy ever possible for the U.S. in the future.

Back in January 2017 Deutsche Bank began thinking about it, applying new models, trying to conceptualize and quantify MAGAnomics, and trying to walk out the potential ramifications. They began talking about Trump doubling the U.S. GDP growth rate when all U.S. investment groups couldn’t yet fathom the possibility.

It’s like waking up on Christmas morning every day to see the pontificating Fed struggling to quantify analysis of their surrounding reality based on flawed assumptions. They simply have no understanding of what happens within the new dimension.
Monetary policy, Fed control over the economy, is disconnected and will stay that way for approximately another 12-14 months, until Main Street regains full operational strength –and– economic parity is achieved.

As we have continued to share, CTH believes the paycheck-to-paycheck working middle-class are going to see a considerable rise in wages and standard of living. How high can wages rise?… that depends on the pressure; and right now the pressure is massive. I’m not going to dismiss the possibility we could see double digit increases in year-over-year wage growth in multiple economic sectors in several regions of the U.S.
Remember, as wages and benefits increase – millions of people are coming back into the labor market to take advantage of the income opportunities. The statistics on the invisible workforce varies, but there are millions of people taking on new jobs in this economy and the participation rate is growing.
Winnamins. We’ll need lots of them…

Forget minimum wage laws, they are inconsequential conversations when measured against the reality of how quickly wages rise in a free, fair, unregulated and growing economy.

Seriously, with full measure of optimism and appreciation – and tears of thankfulness that we are alive to experience it – these are exceptional times.

“To winfinity and beyond” !!


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Joe King

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Trump's approval rating remains basically unchanged since May 1st... think about how many times the media has freaked out about something over the last 2 months and realize that almost no one cares
Which is the real reason they are freaking out. They see their relevance waning.
 

newmisty

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MAGAnomics Second Quarter Wage Rate Growth 2.8% – Red, White and Blue Collar Growth Well Over 3%
Posted on July 31, 2018by sundance

For more than three decades all U.S. economic policy was elevating Wall Street and diminishing Main Street. As a result the middle America blue-collar workers have not had wage gains keeping up with inflation for over 30 years…. Then came the era of Trump.



– “Walking in a Winner Wonderland” –

More than two years ago CTH began discussing the ramifications to a new emphasis on the economy outlined as a possibility of candidate Donald Trump’s economic policy outlook. Within the overall discussion we walked through the anticipated changes possible if A.) Trump won the election, and B.) Trump began instituting Main Street economic policyahead of Wall Street policy (the past 30+ years).

We discussed the new dimension that would occur between two economic engines (Main Street -vs- Wall Street) as three decades of policy shifted. CTH outlined statistical and measurable KPIs that would become visible in the space between the policy shifts.

Part of those discussions focused on energy costs, product costs (we explained how inflation would be weird), and importantly, wage rates. It takes several months of policy emphasis (actual outcomes), before the labor market wage rates would grow. We anticipated seeing that impact in Q2 of 2018, which is April-June 2018. Well:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just released their second quarter analysis of wage and benefit rates for American workers. –SEE HERE– This is only the beginning of what is to come:


(pdf link)

Overall wage rate growth in Q2 now at 2.8% year-over-year. That is great news. However, the better news is the red emphasis, White and Blue Collar middle-class wage rate growth is well over 3%. The wage growth is broad-based amid almost all sectors. [Trucking and transportation at 3.4% (Table 8)]

As the wage rate increases, and as the economy expands, the governmental dependency model is reshaped and simultaneously receipts to the U.S. treasury improve.

More money into the U.S Treasury and less dependence on welfare/social service programs have a combined exponential impact. You gain a dollar, and have no need to spend a dollar – the saved sum is doubled. That is how the SSI and safety net programs are saved under President Trump.
When you elevate your economic thinking you begin to see that all of the “entitlements” or expenditures become more affordable with an economy that is fully functional.

As the GDP of the U.S. expands, so does our ability to meet the growing need of the retiring U.S. worker. We stop thinking about how to best divide a limited economic pie, and begin thinking about how many more economic pies we can create.
The economic models of the entire last generation+ are based on the assumptions of continuing globalist economics which advances, and has advanced, the interest of Wall Street over Main Street. They were driving a “service-driven economy” message.

The investing class economy, ie. another name for a ‘service-driven economy’, has been the only source of historic reference for approximately three decades. These talking heads convinced themselves that a “service driven economy” was the ONLY economy ever possible for the U.S. in the future.

Back in January 2017 Deutsche Bank began thinking about it, applying new models, trying to conceptualize and quantify MAGAnomics, and trying to walk out the potential ramifications. They began talking about Trump doubling the U.S. GDP growth rate when all U.S. investment groups couldn’t yet fathom the possibility.

It’s like waking up on Christmas morning every day to see the pontificating Fed struggling to quantify analysis of their surrounding reality based on flawed assumptions. They simply have no understanding of what happens within the new dimension.
Monetary policy, Fed control over the economy, is disconnected and will stay that way for approximately another 12-14 months, until Main Street regains full operational strength –and– economic parity is achieved.

As we have continued to share, CTH believes the paycheck-to-paycheck working middle-class are going to see a considerable rise in wages and standard of living. How high can wages rise?… that depends on the pressure; and right now the pressure is massive. I’m not going to dismiss the possibility we could see double digit increases in year-over-year wage growth in multiple economic sectors in several regions of the U.S.
Remember, as wages and benefits increase – millions of people are coming back into the labor market to take advantage of the income opportunities. The statistics on the invisible workforce varies, but there are millions of people taking on new jobs in this economy and the participation rate is growing.
Winnamins. We’ll need lots of them…

Forget minimum wage laws, they are inconsequential conversations when measured against the reality of how quickly wages rise in a free, fair, unregulated and growing economy.

Seriously, with full measure of optimism and appreciation – and tears of thankfulness that we are alive to experience it – these are exceptional times.

“To winfinity and beyonnA!!


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Anyone else notice how meme friendly our beloved POTUS is? He's quite "Meme-agenic".
 

Irons

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MAGAnomics – ADP Private Payrolls: 219,000 Jobs Gained, 23,000 More Manufacturing Jobs…
Posted on August 1, 2018by sundance

The ADP national employment report is a monthly measure of the change in total U.S. nonfarm private employment derived from actual, anonymous payroll data of companies served by ADP. The report measures approximately 24 million U.S. workers along with employment trends in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics.



For July 2018, ADP has calculated payroll increases of 219,000 new jobs including 23,000 more manufacturing jobs created as an outcome of a resurgence in manufacturing and goods-producing industries. In the last 19 months, the U.S. has added 836,000 manufacturing jobs. [For contrast: in the 19 month period preceding President Trump’s MAGA-Magic-manufacturing growth, only 26,000 manufacturing jobs were created.]
(Via CNBC) Private payrolls in the U.S. increased by more than expected last month as companies get a boost from lower corporate taxes, ADP and Moody’s Analytics said Wednesday.
Jobs in the U.S. increased by 219,000 in July, while economists polled by Reuters expected a gain of 185,000. July’s job gains were the best since February, when 241,000 jobs were added. Jobs growth for the previous month was also revised up to 181,000 from 177,000.​

“The job market is booming, impacted by the deficit-financed tax cuts and increases in government spending,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, in a statement. “Tariffs have yet to materially impact jobs, but the multinational companies shed jobs last month, signaling the threat.” (more)​

Overall Blue and White Collar job gains are very strong. In the aggregate the supply chain for all goods-producing industries are struggling to keep up with demand as the economy continues to expand due to America-First growth and investment. A good problem to have.
The trade and transportation sector added 21,000 jobs; a direct response to the need for material shipments and factory replenishment. Raw materials (inbound) and finished goods (outbound) all lead to an increase in transportation jobs.
The jobs growth is across all business sizes: small (1-49 employees); medium (50-499) and large business (500+) are all seeing growth in jobs:


Here’s the ADP report:
View this document on Scribd
.
It is worth noting the jobs sectors with the largest gains are also the sectors with the fastest rising wages. Obviously the correlation does not need to be explained:

(link to wage growth data)

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SongSungAU

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Rush Limbaugh: President Trump Calls The Show! (14 min 43 sec):


Published on Aug 1, 2018 by Tea Partiest
 

Irons

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Understanding Phase II of the U.S. -vs- China Trade Confrontation….
Posted on August 2, 2018by sundance

President Trump has moved into Phase II of the U.S./China confrontation. Part of that confrontation is to use the inherent weakness of the Chinese economy against them. To understand the weakness is to understand the China ‘One-Belt / ‘One-World‘ economic trade strategy. Here’s an outline of the economic battle-space we are witnessing.



People often talk about the ‘strength’ of China’s economic model; and indeed within a specific part of their economy –manufacturing– they do have economic strength.

However, the underlying critical architecture of the Chinese economic model is structurally flawed and President Trump with his current economic team understand the weakness better than all international adversaries.
Lets take a stroll and discuss.

China is a central planning economy. Meaning it never was an outcropping of natural economic conditions. China was/is controlled as a communist style central-planning government; As such, it is important to reference the basic structural reality that China’s economy was created from the top down.

This construct of government creation is a key big picture distinction that sets the backdrop to understand how weak the economy really is.



Any nations’ economic model is only as stable (or strong) as the underlying architecture or infrastructure of the country’s economic balance.
Think about economic strength and stability this way: If a nation was economically walled off from all other nations, can it survive? …can it sustain itself? …can it grow?

In the big picture – economic strength is an outcome of the ability of a nation, any nation, to support itself first and foremost. If a nations’ economy is dependent on other nation for itself to survive it is less strong than a nation whose economy is more independent.
Most Americans don’t realize it, but China is an extremely dependent nation.

When the central planning for the 21st century Chinese Economy was constructed, there were several critical cultural flaws, dynamics exclusive to China, that needed to be overcome in order to build their economic model. It took China several decades to map out a way to economic growth that could overcome the inherent critical flaws.

Critical Flaws To Exploit:

♦Because of the oppressive nature of the Chinese compliant culture, the citizens within China do not innovate or create. The “Compliance Mindset” is part of the intellectual DNA strain of a Chinese citizen.

Broadly speaking, the modern era Chinese are not able to think outside the box per se’; because the reference of all civil activity has been a history of box control by government, and compliance to stay (think) only within the approved box. The lack of intellectual thought-mapping needed for innovation is why China relies on intellectual theft of innovation created by others.
American culture specifically is based around freedom of thought and severe disdain of government telling us what to do; THAT freedom is necessary for innovation. That freedom actually creates innovation.

Again, broadly speaking Chinese are better students in American schools and universities because the Chinese are culturally compliant. They work well with academics and established formulas, and within established systems, but they cannot create the formula or system themselves.

The Chinese Planning Authority skipped the economic cornerstone. When China planned out their economic entry, they did so from a top-down perspective. They immediately wanted to be manufacturers of stuff. They saw their worker population as a strategic advantage, but they never put the source origination infrastructure into place in order to supply their manufacturing needs. China has no infrastructure for raw material extraction or exploitation.

China relies on: importing raw material, applying their economic skill set (manufacturing), and then exporting finished goods. This is the basic economic structure of the Chinese economy.

See the flaw?

Cut off the raw material, and the China economy slows, contracts, and if nations react severely enough with export material boycotts the entire Chinese economy implodes.
Insert big flashy sign for: “One-Belt / One-Road” HERE The Chinese economic model requires them to have a strategy for sustainability. That is why they have the One-Belt, One Road plan.

Again, we reference the earlier point: Economic strength is the ability of a nation to sustain itself. [Think about an economy during conflict or war] China cannot independently sustain itself, therefore China is necessarily vulnerable.
China is dependent on Imports (raw materials) AND Exports (finished goods).



♦The 800lb Panda in the room is that China is arguably the least balanced economy in the modern world. Hence, China has to take extraordinary measures to secure their supply chain. This economic dependency is also why China has recently spent so much on military expansion etc., they must protect their vulnerable interests.

Everything important to the Chinese Economy surrounds their critical need to secure a strong global supply chain of raw material to import, and leveraged trade agreements for export.
China’s economy is deep (manufacturing), but China’s economy is also narrow.

China could have spent the time to create a broad-based economy, but the lack of early 1900’s foresight, in conjunction with their communist top-down totalitarian system and a massive population, led to central government decisions to subvert the bottom-up building-out and take short-cuts. Their population controls only worsened their long term ability to ever broaden their economic model.

It takes a population of young avg-skilled workers to do the hard work of building a raw material infrastructure. Mine workers, dredge builders, roads and railways, bridges and tunnels etc. All of these require young strong bodies. The Chinese cultural/population decisions amid the economic builders precluded this proactive outlook; now they have an aging population and are incapable of doing it.
This is why China has now positioned their economic system as dependent on them being an economic bully. They must retain their supply chain: import raw materials – export finished goods, at all costs.

This inherent economic structure is a weakness China must continually address through policies toward other nations. Hence, “One-Belt / One-Road” is essentially their ‘bully plan’ to ensure their supply chain and long-term economic viability.

This economic structure, and the reality of China as a dependent economic model, also puts China at risk from the effects of global economic contraction. But more importantly it puts them at risk from President Trump’s strategic use of geopolitical economic leverage to weaken their economy.

Nuance and subtlety is everything in China. Culturally harsh tones are seen as a sign of weakness and considered intensely impolite in public displays between officials; especially within approved and released statements by officials representing the government.
Historic Chinese cultural policy, the totalitarian control over expressed political sentiment and diplomacy through silence, is evident in the strategic use of the space between carefully chosen words, not just the words themselves.

China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other. China accepts and believes opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Flowing between these polar states is a natural dynamic to be used -with serious contemplation- in advancing objectives as needed.
The Chinese objective is to win, to dominate, using economic power.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome. If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.
Therefore, when you see China publicly use strong language – it indicates a level of internal disposition within Beijing beyond the defined western angst. Big Panda becomes Red Dragon; there is no mid-status or evolutionary phase.



U.S. President Donald Trumpand the U.S. economic team fully understand this dynamic and fully understand the inherent needs of China.
When you are economically dependent, the ‘bully plan’ only works until you encounter a ‘stronger opponent’.
A stronger opponent is an economic opponent with a more broad-based stable economy, that’s US.

President Trump, Commerce Secretary Ross, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, Economic Adviser Peter Navarro and NEC Chairman Larry Kudlow represent the first broad-based national team of economic negotiators who know how to leverage the inherent Chinese economic vulnerability.

Every American associated with investment, economics and China would be well advised to put their interconnected business affairs in order according to their exposure.

President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the geopolitical economics must be addressed. President Donald Trump and his team are entirely prepared for this.

Donald Trump has been discussing this for more than three decades. We are going into economic combat with China!
China’s objective is conquest. China’s tool for conquest is economics. President Trump’s entire geopolitical strategy, using economics in a similar way, is an existential threat to China’s endeavor. Communist Beijing calls the proverbial DPRK shots.

President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.

♦Squeeze #1. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue. Venezuela needs more money. China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding. China and Russia now need to loan more, directly.

♦Squeeze #2. China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal. Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has influenced global energy prices. Meanwhile Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria. Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent and President Trump is now putting pressure on Iran vis-a-vis new sanctions.

♦Squeeze #3. In 2017 Trump and Secretary Tillerson, now Secretary Pompeo, put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China. If U.S. pulls or reduces financial support to pressure Pakistan toward a political solution in Afghanistan, China has to fill void. [NOTE: Last month the World Bank began discussions about a financial bailout for Pakistan.]

♦Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India. President Trump has embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals. The key play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India. That’s a big play. It would have massive ramifications.

♦Squeeze #5. President Trump launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property. This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.
In March of 2018 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer completed a section 301 review of China’s trade practices. [SEE HERE] Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce. However, as talks with China progressed, President Trump shelved the 301 action to see where negotiations would end-up. The May and June, 2018, negotiations between the U.S. and China provided no progress. The 301 review of China is now pulled back off the shelf, and President Trump assembles his trade-war strategy. The 301 tariffs/sanctions are currently being worked out with U.S.T.R Robert Lighthizer.

♦Squeeze #6. President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer are renegotiating NAFTA. One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. is to close the 3rd party loopholes, including dumping and origination, that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]

♦Squeeze #7. President Trump has been open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. conclude with NAFTA renegotiation. [Current discussions with Japan are ongoing]

♦Squeeze #8. President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. Last year the KORUS (South Korea and U.S.) trade deal was renegotiated. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…

♦Squeeze #9. President Trump has formed an economic and national security alliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan. It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired his last missile over the Northern part of Japan. Quite simply, Beijing told him to. However, President Trump engaged directly with Kim Jong-un and has removed much of the ability of Beijing to leverage the DPRK nuclear threat for economic benefit.
Add all of this up and you can see the cumulative impact of President Trump’s geopolitical economic strategy toward China. The best part of all of it – is the likelihood China never saw it, meaning the sum totality of “all of it”, coming…. at first. Now they do, and they are not quite sure how to respond.

Each time China takes aggressive action (red dragon) China projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and the action continues. The red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately. The Art of War.

President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.
It is specifically because he understands that Panda is a mask that President Trump messages warmth toward the Chinese people, and pours vociferous praise upon Xi Jinping, while simultaneously confronting the geopolitical doctrine of the Xi regime.
In essence Trump is mirroring the behavior of China while confronting their economic duplicity.

President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the issue must be addressed. President Trump has waiting three decades for this moment. This President and his team are entirely prepared for this.



The Olive branch and arrows denote the power of peace and war. The symbol in any figure’s right hand has more significance than one in its left hand. Also important is the direction faced by the symbols central figure. The emphasis on the eagles stare signifies the preferred disposition. An eagle holding an arrow also symbolizes the war for freedom, and its use is commonly referred to the liberation fight of righteous people from abusive influence. The eagle on the original seal created for the Office of the President showed the gaze upon the arrows.

The Eagle and the Arrow – An Aesop’s Fable
An Eagle was soaring through the air. Suddenly it heard the whizz of an Arrow, and felt the dart pierce its breast. Slowly it fluttered down to earth. Its lifeblood pouring out. Looking at the Arrow with which it had been shot, the Eagle realized that the deadly shaft had been feathered with one of its own plumes.​
Moral: We often give our enemies the means for our own destruction.



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SongSungAU

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President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the issue must be addressed. President Trump has [been] waiting three decades for this moment. This President and his team are entirely prepared for this.
The Art of the Deal. I love this President!

Finally, a President with a brain, a backbone, and millions of deplorables backing him.

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Irons

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MAGAnomics: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs July Report – Private Employment +170,000, Government Employment -13,000, Net: +157,000
Posted on August 3, 2018by sundance



The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July 2018 employment report today (full pdf with tables below) highlighting continued growth in jobs. Overall private employment gained 170,000 jobs, while government employment decreased 13,000 jobs for a net gain of 156,000 new jobs. The BLS unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%.

[*Note this footnote: “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up to +268,000, and the change for June was revised up to +248,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 59,000 more than previously reported.”] Huh, funny that…. some revision eh?

July’s labor participation is holding steady at 62.9%, with 155,965,000 employed within the U.S. workforce. (Table A-1)
Blue and White-collar Main Street jobs continue to lead the MAGAnomic resurgence. (table B-1) Construction jobs increased 19,000 jobs; manufacturing gained 37,000 jobs; and trade/transportation and utilities gaining 15,000.

With extra cash in their pockets, the U.S. worker/consumer continued to spend and retail employment added 7,100 new workers in July. (Table B1) Interestingly, and reinforcing a long-ago CTH prediction, the consumer spending growth (leading to increases in employment) is specifically in the consumable goods sector (food, clothing, etc.). This is connected to the increase in work-time (table B2); an oft overlooked aspect to the economy.

Truck transportation gained 4,400 jobs in July (everyone needs truckers), which is in line with the high wage growth (3.4%) within this sub-set of the transportation industry.




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SongSungAU

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It's an interesting article about Donald Trump. A glimpse into his character and what makes him tick.
This article was written in 1984 so his wife at the time of its writing was Ivana Trump.

One excerpt that made me smile:

It is often pointed out that Mr. Trump is prone to exaggeration in describing his projects. Oh, he lies a great deal, says Philip Johnson with a laugh. But it's sheer exuberance, exaggeration. It's never about anything important. He's straight as an arrow in his business dealings.

I don't know if the article will post here but the link to it is:

https://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/08/magazine/the-expanding-empire-of-donald-trump.html?pagewanted=all
 

SongSungAU

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Trump’s supporters (aka me) elected an apex predator, a T-rex, to eat the smaller, slimier pillagers who were devouring us. We voters are not shocked when the T-rex acts like a T-rex and, on occasion, mates with an inappropriate object or, oops, possibly by mistake, eats grandma. Instead, we say, “I loved grandma. And I’ll miss her … but this is what we need to fight the Washington raptors, the bastards.”

- ALEX CASTELLANOS
 

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