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URANIUM & ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 4

SAGI

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I'm learning to stay away from Brazil. I was burnt on Jaguar mining as well. Not sure if its just coincidence, but it seems like it hard to operate a large mine in that rainforest.
Jelly I would not think that is true. Remember Colossus is such a lucrative project that even gold streaming company SAND which has some very experienced management as well as Sand storm Metals ( Now shut and taken over by sand storm gold) had made a contract with them. Here is a link to their website and video where they mention about colossus. http://www.sandstormgold.com/investors/ I would like you to consider using the ichimuku cloud and either use the MACD or OBV to consider where a trend is changing so that you may have a better chance of making money. Please watch the following video it may help to understand how the ichimuku system works and how to use trends to trade in stocks. I suggest that you first try it out on a simulated account and see where the dry run takes you before you try it for real. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGrxL5U7YaY

I hope this will help you. Please continue to post your queries or questions and I will attempt to assist as much as possible.

thanks

SAGI
 

SAGI

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Jelly I would not think that is true. Remember Colossus is such a lucrative project that even gold streaming company SAND which has some very experienced management as well as Sand storm Metals ( Now shut and taken over by sand storm gold) had made a contract with them. Here is a link to their website and video where they mention about colossus. http://www.sandstormgold.com/investors/ I would like you to consider using the ichimuku cloud and either use the MACD or OBV to consider where a trend is changing so that you may have a better chance of making money. Please watch the following video it may help to understand how the ichimuku system works and how to use trends to trade in stocks. I suggest that you first try it out on a simulated account and see where the dry run takes you before you try it for real. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGrxL5U7YaY

I hope this will help you. Please continue to post your queries or questions and I will attempt to assist as much as possible.

thanks

SAGI
Ok! As usual I tend to read what I have written and poof! I notice I goof up thats me SAGI- its my star sign that does this! Let me clarify! I am not stating that it was a good idea to get into Colossus. However as consolation, I thought it was a good idea personally. I was wrong, so Jelly you are not alone in thinking it was a good idea. It happens. The problem I have identified with many traders is that we do not pay attention to our stop losses and that is where a major problem lies. When ever we invest me must assume we are going to be wrong and since we are going to be wrong how do we get out with minimal losses without killing the trade due to whipsaw that often occurs. The links are simply one idea of a possibility to trade using technicals. So its not the holy grail. Please see my written articles on Coffee.

SAGI
 

searcher

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Jelly I would not think that is true. Remember Colossus is such a lucrative project that even gold streaming company SAND which has some very experienced management as well as Sand storm Metals ( Now shut and taken over by sand storm gold) had made a contract with them. Here is a link to their website and video where they mention about colossus. http://www.sandstormgold.com/investors/ I would like you to consider using the ichimuku cloud and either use the MACD or OBV to consider where a trend is changing so that you may have a better chance of making money. Please watch the following video it may help to understand how the ichimuku system works and how to use trends to trade in stocks. I suggest that you first try it out on a simulated account and see where the dry run takes you before you try it for real. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGrxL5U7YaY

I hope this will help you. Please continue to post your queries or questions and I will attempt to assist as much as possible.

thanks

SAGI
:thumbs_up:..............................:beerglass:
 

dpong

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Hi SAGI,

I'm watching the video you posted regarding ichimuku clouds. I'm curious. Do you approve/advocate for this guy's specific use of the clouds, or did you post it just as a good intro? Do you like the way he is using them?

Much thanks,
dpong
 

dpong

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Using his system against SLV, I get this chart. Please listen carefully to the YouTube video starting at 42:40 where he discusses a Google decline where the first candle was already "through the cloud."

Interesting. It will be interesting to see how this works out.
 

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SAGI

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Hi Dpong,

As you will note the penetration through the cloud is in a very thin area and as he states that the stop loss should be brought to break even when it exits the cloud; this can lead to a whipsaw in this case. He tends to use this in more active stocks though he states that the system can be used in any stocks or trade. I personally think that this is a basic and some trial and error adjustments will be required in order for it to suit ones personal style of trading. In his case he uses the system on a more stable stock which is traded in large numbers. It may work out in this case, but the million dollar question is; When does one exit?

SAGI
 

dpong

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That is a rather good question, SAGI!

Here is a nice video: Ichimoku Basics for the beginner where the student of Ichimoku Cloud system takes beginners (like me) completely through the basics in about an hour. In this video he is teaching the traditional system. It was well worth my watching it. He is a good teacher and gets you into it quick.

 
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SAGI

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Good day dpong,

I have seen this one before and a number of his other ones. Yes Chaostrader has posted several trading system in the past. I think the important difference between the two are that the one I posted is based around a slower parameter while chaos has set his up on the original set up. I think it important to consider the different parameters. This is another video where he has removed some of the parameters to keep it more simple.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=tEeXmsonRZo

SAGI
 

SAGI

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Hello FP,
Good to see you back and adding some ingredients to the conversation. I am still keeping an eye on the issues with Japan. Nothing important has occurred.

SAGI
 

dpong

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Thanks, SAGI. I will watch it when time allows. Two things I very much enjoyed about the vid you posted were 1) He slowed down his MACD by 2.5 times. This to me looks very useful. The other thing I really liked 2) He drew trend lines on OBV. That seems a mighty good thing to pay attention to.

I went back and read your 'circles' post. I think you are changing the way I plan to trade. P&F charting is all about trends, and it moves slowly so the tiny circles agitating don't create noise on P&F. I will focus on it more for trends, instead of trying to call the bottom. Boy but we do love to get caught up in bottom-calling.

dpong
Good day dpong,

I have seen this one before and a number of his other ones. Yes Chaostrader has posted several trading system in the past. I think the important difference between the two are that the one I posted is based around a slower parameter while chaos has set his up on the original set up. I think it important to consider the different parameters. This is another video where he has removed some of the parameters to keep it more simple.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=tEeXmsonRZo

SAGI
 

dpong

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Thanks again, SAGI. Yes, that KISS video was very nice.

I think that combining the insights from that with other systems could be most beneficial.

Let me share 2 charts with you just for fun, in support of the idea that P&F is all about trends. The 'interesting' thing about this chart, if it is indeed interesting, is that I found this stock simply by using stockcharts.com chart voyeur feature. I was watching random charts go by and when I saw one that I thought would be interesting if charted by P&F I would stop and chart it. If I'm a one trick pony, then this is my trick: I like to see a sort of rounded bottom (who doesn't?) and then a buy signal above the bearish resistance line. This is trend change and often it begins a momentum move. I did the same thing with MVG. Never heard of it, saw the chart, liked it. I did trade MVG, and though my trading lacked finesse I was able to wring out 10% in less than 2 weeks.

The first chart of OAS is from June 6th (the one that has my markup on it). This is when I spotted the setup. I was hoping for a pullback to 48 which never came, so I did not participate in this one. I thought that most of the move had already gotten away from me. The second chart is from today.

Your 'circles' post and these cloud videos really have me thinking, SAGI.

Good to know you,
dpong
 

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dpong

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Hi SAGI,

Please forgive the temporary hijacking of your thread of the off-topic TA discussion.

To substantiate the MVG trade, consider these 2 charts.

I anticipated the buy signal at 9, so got in at cost basis of 8.94. I was spooked out at 10.10.
 

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SAGI

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Hi Dpong,

I think that indicators require to be smoothed out so they require to be slowed down a little in order for us not be spooked. The problem; 'As I have mentioned numerous times right throughout this thread is our own state of mind', since the price will do what it does i.e move according to supply and demand. Rather than anticipate it makes sense to move in after the event. Analyse the reasons as to why you were spooked out of the trade. Were the reasons valid for exiting? What was the trend and were you trading with the trend or against it?

SAGI
 

dpong

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I was with the trend. Price fell from 10.60 rapidly down to 10.10. I took profit while holding on to a quarter of my stake. I was lucky to be 'spooked'. 2 days later MVG issued 12% more shares diluting the price down to 9.50. It is currently working to recover from that. There is no way I could have known that. As far as 'anticipating' I think I played it right, actually. Not always, but this time. The buy signal at $9 proved it was trending on the P&F chart. I was watching the daily candlesticks and saw it trending on that scale, too. It was centimeters from $9 when I bought (8.94) so I did not anticipate much. This wasn't bottom-calling. This was trend following. While there is no concept of 'momentum' in P&F charting, it does define trends quite well. I am enjoying your lessons. Please keep it up.
 

dpong

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Dear SAGI,

Now that we have dispensed with my natural defensiveness, let me acknowledge your greater lesson. Regardless of the outcome, which was unknown at the time and I have acknowledged as nothing but 'dumb luck', the better decision at the time would have been to have lower stops and allow it some room to grow in the trend. But at the time I had not yet read SAGI. Lesson taken.

Thanks and Regards,
dpong
 

SAGI

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Dear Dpong,

In this thread there are no teachers. All of us are here to help each other. There is no right or wrong in trades.

In 2008 I hit on a beautiful short time line trade system it was the most fantastic pattern that kept repeating again and again, using the Rsi and MACD I was able to trade like a pro for a period of one month, on GBPUSD accumulating every single day for twenty five days approximately 500 to 1000 pounds per day. I would trade for about an hour each day and then close the computer and come back the next day. I thought I was the King, but the markets taught me humility.

It all went wrong on one single day, I played with over confidence thinking nothing would change but that day things did change and I failed to recognise that the pattern had changed, I lost all my gains and then some. The truth was that one requires to be a fox and be able to change game plays all the time to see which system works at which time. Nothing remains constant in these markets.

We all bring our personal experiences to the table and no one will think any less of any one else for being better or worse. We come to this thread with humility and an open mind. We listen to all and gain from all. This thread is also about making us whole and living better lives.

We all learn!

Student SAGI
 

SAGI

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Here is a trade of a break out in AUDUSD I have been watching this for some time waiting for it to break past the resistance which is the green line it may do so by tomorrow. It is just an example of how we may apply Ichimuku and OBV.

SAGI
 

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dpong

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Hi SAGI,

Apply your slow ICHI to (DBA) Powershares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Agriculture Fund, just for kicks.

[Oh yes, timeframe. Look at about 1 year to start.]

PS. The H&S pattern is just a bonus.
 
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SAGI

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OK dpong will have a look at it tomorrow as it's a little late in London. Had a brief does look good having penetrated the cloud.


SAGI
 

dpong

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I'm trying puts with strike 27 for October. Who knows?
 

SAGI

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Here is an example of one i Played with earlier. STNG was picked randomly form finance yahoo active stocks. Entry at penetration of cloud, confirmation of OBV and MACD cross over. Break even at top of Cloud now and half sold at Blue line cross over.

SAGI
 

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dpong

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Regarding BAC:

I'll try to play, SAGI, though I just learned about ICHIMOKU the other day. On your slow settings the chikou span is still in congestion. It seems the set up will get better if the chikou clears the congestion and also clears the top of the green cloud. I would also like to see the OBV show noticeable improvement on the move to the cloud. If BAC is under accumulation it is subtle until that last candle.

Set your chart to 3 year view, and draw a very long support line on the OBV. Now look at the OBV to the right of your support line. That changed my perspective of the near-term OBV significantly. If BAC is about to trend, you are definitely at the beginning. My humble observations .

I like it, but I don't love it.
 
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dpong

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I have been sitting with some TLT puts Strike Price 111 for March 2015. Looks like I may have time for that to work, but this is not trending, it's top calling mixed with economic theory and dumb luck. This is not how I intend to trade in future. I will try to find a trend and blend in.

PS. I looked at your STNG chart from today. Looks like the top of the red cloud really is a resistance level. That could be good if/when STNG manages to break through it.
 

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dpong

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How did you choose your support and resistance levels, if you don't mind? Or are they automatic on the settings you chose? I think I can see support, but I don't see the resistance.

Thanks,
dpong
Here is current silver one hr chart showing support and resistance levels. A break below is a sell, a break above is a buy.
 

SAGI

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Hi Dpong
The resistance and support lines I am assuming you are talking about the Silver chart, are based simply by looking at where the price has been making U turns on, but asides from that I have also visually used the Fractal points (The V and inverted V points in red and green on the chart) which are more like pivot points. Since Silver is currently meandering between these two lines, you would wait to trade either on a bounce from support or resistance or as suggested; A breakout. Breakouts is what newbies look for but experienced traders tend to look for a bounce from resistance and support complimented by other confirmations of indicators or price action, such as; An inverse pin bar, A break of the OBV or a divergence of the MACD or over bought or oversold position on the RSI. Experienced traders will often use a combination of two of these or more with tight stop losses in place. Traders will wait for confirmations from any of the possible outcomes to trade. The lines are deliberately slightly outside the turns so that they compensate for any price action which often takes place during periods of fluctuation such as on Non farm payrolls report day (Today) which may occur and throw one to make a wrong investment. In view of this they are slightly out allowing for spikes.

SAGI
 

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(Reuters) - Japanese government officials no longer expect the world's biggest nuclear plant to restart this year, sources said, a delay which deals a blow to turnaround plans for operator Tokyo Electric Power.

Starting the Kashiwazaki Kariwa facility, 300 km (180 miles) northwest of Tokyo, is a pivotal part of Tokyo Electric's (Tepco) attempts to shore up its finances three years after its Fukushima site suffered three nuclear meltdowns.

The company had slated the restart of two reactors at Kashiwazaki for this month, but critics have long said that goal was unrealistic and four sources with direct knowledge of the matter said it would be postponed. One source said the timetable could be pushed back by a year.

"It will take some time for Kashiwazaki, it will be impossible to restart it this fiscal year," the source told Reuters. Japan's business year started in April.

Two of the sources also said the government has told the utility to avoid hiking electricity charges, further pressuring the firm which last year promised lenders rate hikes or reactor restarts to receive fresh financial support.

In its turnaround plan announced in January, Tepco warned it may have to consider boosting electricity rates as early as autumn if it could not reopen Kashiwazaki.

Tepco bounced back to a net profit in the last fiscal year thanks to aggressive cost cuts and government assistance after it posted more than $27 billion in losses for three straight years following the Fukushima disaster. But it has said the company would save $1 billion a month in fuel costs if all seven reactors at Kashiwazaki were operating.

Forced to burn more fossil fuels with all 48 of Japan's nuclear reactors offline, power generators have been saddled with growing bills for imports of commodities such as thermal coal and liquefied natural gas.

The newly established Nuclear Regulation Authority is vetting restart applications from nine utilities. The watchdog is in the final stages of assessing Kyushu Electric Power's Sendai plant, but has fallen far behind schedule in screening other nuclear reactors.

A delay in restarts has forced Kyushu Electric and Hokkaido Electric Power to apply for bailouts from the state-backed Development Bank of Japan.

Tepco vice president Hiroshi Yamaguchi told shareholders in June that the company could not comment on the timing of the Kashiwazaki restart.
 

dpong

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Here is a Traditional ICHIMOKU update of the TLT chart. It did penetrate horizontal support today. As I understand it the traditional ICHI trading rule would be do not initiate a short trade until it breaks below the bottom of the cloud.

I think the chart is interesting beyond the fact that I hold some 111 and 106 strike puts. It also appears to indicate a possible trend change in the LT bond market. This would mean lower bond prices and higher LT interest rates. If this should turn out to be a major trend change, we can see it right on the chart. The next move on this chart would normally be a bounce off of support right here and now. If it doesn't bounce off support, that would also be something to take into consideration.

I found about a thousand typos in what I just typed. Please forgive any that I missed. Feeling under the weather today.

PS. Ah, I see that todays candle, since it closed higher actually was a one day bounce off of support. We will have to wait to see if there is any follow-through. All comments, criticisms (ex-spelling), suggestions, are welcomed.
 

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SAGI

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Dear Dpong,

I have to consider my fine feline friend Fat Panther, and others who will be sitting with crossed arms while you and I discuss the merits of Ichimuku. My apologies to FP, Searcher and other readers who have diligently and patiently continued to watch this discussion while I went off at a tangent. Let us try to apply various methods to the stocks in Uranium, alternative energy and see where we land perhaps we can profit from that too.

Though most are sitting below the cloud at present, in between we shall continue to discuss the various TA methods available to us and continue to do research to see if we can come up with a good reliable system. The quest for the holy grail continues....

SAGI
 

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Now to more related charts. TSL- Trina Solar has been attempting to break high but recently came down. We are approaching the move up. Please study the chart below.

SAGI
 

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dpong

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My apologies too then.
 

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Dear Dpong,

I have to consider my fine feline friend Fat Panther, and others who will be sitting with crossed arms while you and I discuss the merits of Ichimuku. My apologies to FP, Searcher and other readers who have diligently and patiently continued to watch this discussion while I went off at a tangent. Let us try to apply various methods to the stocks in Uranium, alternative energy and see where we land perhaps we can profit from that too.

Though most are sitting below the cloud at present, in between we shall continue to discuss the various TA methods available to us and continue to do research to see if we can come up with a good reliable system. The quest for the holy grail continues....

SAGI

No problem, SAGI
 

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Some new "angles" to the same old story. I like the fresh insight. I'll keep an eye on this Raymond James guy. Seems astute on the subject though I don't like the news. Won't shoot the messenger, yet, but 2020? Yikes.



Uranium: The Short Term Is Bad, but the Long Term Looks Great
Wednesday July 2, 2014, 4:00pm PDT
By Vivien Diniz+ - Exclusive to Uranium Investing News



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Uranium: The Short Term Is Bad, but the Long Term Looks GreatInvestors might be having some trouble staying positive when it comes to the uranium market these days. Unfortunately, with the spot price insisting on moving lower, it can be hard to cast aside doubts that the market will turn around in the near future.

To help investors understand what has been keeping prices down and sentiment weak, Uranium Investing News spoke with David Sadowski, a mining analyst with Raymond James, who explained that beyond the spot price slump, negative sentiment has largely been driven by the lack of momentum in restarts of Japan’s nuclear fleet.

As most market watchers are aware, 2014 kicked off with what could be called a “reinvigoration” in the mining sector, with uranium playing a big part in that. By the end of February, Japan had released a draft energy plan, laying the groundwork for restarts in the near term. It looked like the cards were finally falling into place for uranium.
Unfortunately, as Sadowski explained, “over time it became increasingly clear that just because there is a draft energy plan in place doesn’t necessarily mean that all the hurdles are cleared for restarts.”

From what we have seen since February, the Nuclear Regulatory Authority is clearly reluctant to go ahead and greenlight the first reactors. “They’ve repeatedly requested more and more data from the utilities that have sought to restart their units. And that has slowed down the process,” said Sadowski.

So with that psychological barrier firmly in place, market sentiment quickly started to dwindle and prices started to fall.

Prices, producers and oversupply

Though Japanese reactor restarts are playing a definite role in keeping uranium prices from pulling ahead, they are not the only factor.

“You’ve got this overarching oversupply issue that is definitely a wet blanket on spot and term prices,” Sadowski said, adding, “there is simply too much supply out there and very limited and discretionary demand; it’s not enough demand to soak up that supply.”

When asked where that oversupply is coming from, Sadowski pointed at both primary and secondary supply sources.

While there have been some mine shutdowns and production cutbacks in the post-Fukushima uranium market, not many operations have closed. In fact, Sadowski explained, the uranium companies that have been hit the hardest by the weak price environment are those with projects in the pipeline — development-stage projects.

So how come some companies are still operating profitably? One reason, said Sadowski, is long-term, fixed-price contracts.

“A lot of companies, like Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO,ASX:RIO,LSE:RIO), are delivering into contracts that are priced much higher than the $28 per pound that we are seeing in the spot market right now.”

Sadowski also highlighted new producers like Ur-Energy (TSX:URE) and a handful of other in situ leach companies that were savvy enough to sign fixed-price deals when prices weren’t as low. As a result of such contracts, those in situ leach companies have been able to weather the storm not only due to low production costs, but also due to contract pricing.

And though many companies have scaled back their production, state-backed entities such as in China and Russia “don’t care as much about the economics of their mines,” said Sadowski. As a result, continued production from them is adding to the already overflowing market.

Secondary supply

With several avenues of primary supply impacting the market, the last thing we need are secondary sources adding to the equation. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what they’re doing.

Investors may have heard the term underfeeding being tossed around the marketplace lately. In the latest industry report from Raymond James, Sadowski highlights that many investors expected that with Japanese reactors offline, the reactors would no longer consume uranium and that would be the end of it. However, enrichment companies — which sell enriched uranium to the utilities — ended up with extra capacity at their plants, and since these enrichment plants run more efficiently with all their centrifuges spinning at the same time, they opted to run their centrifuges with smaller amounts of uranium, squeezing out more enriched end product and further adding to uranium supply.

As investors must, by this point, understand, producers and utilities didn’t halt their course just because demand from Japan stopped. The same applies to supply. When Russia’s HEU agreement ended in 2013, the overarching belief was that there would be a very sharp drop off in supply and that overnight 24 million pounds of uranium would vanish from the supply chain.

That’s not what happened.

As Sadowski explained, the “Russians were taking [uranium from warheads] and blending it with old blend stock to make low-enriched uranium that was being shipped to the US. But to create the blend stock, they had to enrich lower-grade uranium. A process that was taking up capacity at the enrichment plants. But now that that process is over and they are no longer enriching that blend stock, they have the spare capacity at the enrichment plants.”

Therefore, Russia is also running its centrifuges longer on smaller amounts of uranium, re-enriching tailings and adding yet again to the secondary supply.

“It’s not as if that 24 million pounds went to zero all of a sudden,” Sadowski said. And though specific numbers aren’t available, supply did not go from 24 million pounds to zero. “It’s more like it went from 24 million pounds down to 12 or 15 million pounds,” he noted.

So where does that leave us?

For years now, analysts have been touting the uranium supply shortage, but looking at the current market, that prospect no doubt seems laughable.

But that’s not to say it isn’t on the horizon — the timeline has just been pushed out a little. The supply deficit that was once expected to hit the market in 2018 has been delayed until 2020 at the earliest, according to Sadowski.

Of course, that prediction is based on today’s outlook, and we all know that can change without warning. Regardless, Sadowski believes that by the early 2020s, the market will be in a deficit from anywhere between 10 and 30 million pounds.

“That’s when we are going to need new projects. And existing operations cannot ramp up their production enough to offset that deficit, so we are going to have to see new mines up and running by that time,” he concluded.

With uranium’s long-term story a lot more positive that the short term, stay tuned for David Sadowski’s view on which companies he thinks can weather the storm.



Securities Disclosure: I, Vivien Diniz, hold no investment interest in any of the companies mentioned.

Tags: Japan, Uranium Articles, uranium mines, uranium prices, uranium production
 

SAGI

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My apologies too then.
Dear Dpong,

You do not need to apologise. Please feel free to post here, we welcome the activity. We also welcome new areas of investment but hopefully something connected to energy in one format or another. There are 4 threads of U&AE though there were more but some were lost when the website was closed and never got transferred over. A sad state of affairs I must add. Still we must strive to progress. How can we walk forward by looking behind us?

SAGI
 

dpong

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Sagi & Dpong.............I see no problems what-so-ever. This is a great thread :thumbs_up: