Well, if the slaves are predicting a crash,

[Scorpio]

then I am taking the opposite bet




Why Are So Many Americans Predicting A Housing Market Crash?

Phil Hall
Fri, January 29, 2021, 11:51 AM

The housing market has been one of the most vibrant corners of the pandemic-era economy, but a new survey finds more than half of Americans believe it will crash either this year or next year.
What Happened: The survey by LendingTree Inc. (NASDAQ: TREE) polled 2,051 adults conducted between Dec. 17-20 and found 41% of respondents predicting the housing market bubble will deflate during 2021 and force accelerating home prices to fall. Another 26% of respondents forecasted the same scenario in 2022, while 13% did not see another housing market crash in the near future.
LendingTree's Chief Economist Tendayi Kapfidze cast his lot with the 13% of naysayers.

"Though housing heated up late in 2020 and growth is likely to slow in 2021, the idea that it's a bubble that would burst seems unlikely," said Kapfidze. "The mortgage market is healthier than it was prior to the 2008 crisis, and the government is more experienced with interventions that protect the housing market like forbearance and mortgage modifications."
The latest housing data is also not detecting any fissures in the market. This week's S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index found sales were going stronger than ever into the autumn.
"With existing home sales up over 20% from a year ago, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index clocked a 9.49% surge in November – a new high since February 2014," said CoreLogic Inc. (NYSE: CLGX) Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp, adding that "buyer competition reached a new peak nationally in October and November when the ratio climbed to 0.996 – the highest level since 2008, when the data series began."
Mat Ishbia, president and CEO at Pontiac, Michigan-headquartered United Wholesale Mortgage (NYSE: UWMC), is also expressing confidence.
"I think the main trend is going to be a very, very strong mortgage and housing year across the board," he said. "Rates are very low, the economy is recovering, and will recover. Housing demand is great, millennials are buying, mortgage brokers are growing their business channel, and the education of consumers is happening. I think 2021 is going to be one of the best years in history from a mortgage perspective."


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-many-americans-predicting-housing-175152502.html

 

[Casey Jones]

I would not build to let the Statists take away, with taxes and/or deliberate lawless chaos.

In any event, the situation today is fluid. Possessions and real property tie you down. I remember an alleged conversation, probably anecdotal, with one of the Jewish Nazi concentration-camp survivors. The question was asked, Why did you not leave?

Because, came the answer, we had a grand piano in our front room. You know how we Jews love music. We worked hard and saved a long time for that piano; and it was impossible to smuggle out.

Instead, the family was moved, and forcibly, into the camps.

I will not be like that survivor. I have no intention of going into the camps, tethered to a grand piano I will lose anyway. Or to wonderful real estate that is going to be taken...anyway.

I will remain loose.

 

[Bigfoot]

then I am taking the opposite bet

It's hard for me to fault your logic. After all, there's been and will be more money printing. On the other hand, the number of people with stable jobs has been declining. Of course, the specific location is also a huge factor. I was looking at some places in New York a year and a half ago, and then I stopped and thought about the crazed authoritarians that run that place.

 

[ttazzman]

i think housing will reflect employment numbers going forward good or bad ............if bidens policys follow obama's i think you will see the same results......but "21 may run a bit from the ongoing trump effect

 

[gnome]

Could get messy at the lower priced end of the housing market, but the top half of the housing market should be OK.

 

[BackwardsEngineeer]

I honestly don't know ... our market shows currently:

2031 total residential listings
1455 single family detached (653 on market more than 90 days, which is price or condition)
267 single detached under 300k
512 single family 300 to 500k

We typically put 100 to 120 a day under contract here but have only been adding 70 to 80... if the stupids raise interest rates or announce more lockdowns, I'm going need cases of energy drinks and special blue pill for tolerating emotional messes....

But on the other hand, my favorite national just announced 6% buyer commission between now and valentines on stuff closing by 3/31 with cheap financing and pretty much paid closing costs... several really nice places I'm doing my best to sell, but nothing under 300k...

I'm going to keep making hay... sun still shining

 

[BackwardsEngineeer]

Blurb from mls

December is normally one of the slowest months of the year but strong buyer demand across most segments of the market continue to drive a healthy sales pace, while listing inventory continues to remain low overall. For the 12-month period spanning January 2020 through December 2020, Pending Sales in the Charleston-Trident region were up 23.2 percent overall. The price range with the largest gain in sales was the $300,001 and Above range, where they increased 47.3 percent.The overall Median Sales Price were up 8.0 percent to $300,000. The property type with the largest price gain was the Single-Family Homes segment, where prices increased 9.4 percent to $325,000. The price range that tended to sell the quickest was the $150,001 to $200,000 range at 34 days; the price range that tended to sell the slowest was the $100,000 and Below range at 70 days.Market-wide, inventory levels were down 55.8 percent. The property type that lost the least inventory was the Condos segment, where it decreased 53.4 percent. That amounts to 1.2 months supply for Single-Family homes and 1.4 months supply for Condos.

 

[Scorpio]

That amounts to 1.2 months supply

historically very low,
matches what I am seeing,

just watched another go under contract

listed on a Weds, setup open house for Sat
drove by Sat and there were 5 different groups outside pacing around,
probably 5 buyers and realtors 'social distancing'

drove by on Mon and it had a 'under contract' sign above the realtor sign

so it sold in basically 3 days, and most likely from that open house
list was 280k, and do not know if it went at/below/or over/ list

 

[Scorpio]

here is the chart re supply of homes

the last crash came after a build in supply of homes that went on for 4 years, from 05 to 09

then the collapse lasted another 3-4 years or from about 09 to early 13 before stabilizing a bit

now sure, the economic crash started a year before the housing supply peaked or in 08 or so and in 09 gdp was actually hitting its lows
meaning housing follows gdp, does not lead it

which makes sense due to the pipeline and time it takes to get something from concept to market

projects already started will mostly complete unless banks pull the financing, and new projects will be put on the shelf for better times

 

[BackwardsEngineeer]

Scorp,
Hard to predict when the music stops and people start running for open chairs. Do know this, have a single family resale I calculated at 242, mrs BE had it at 237 in december, texting seller this am telling them we are willing to list it at 269k and see what happens. That reads to me of an over heating market, yet there is a non stop flow of desperates willing to pay whatever to no longer be true blue.

Know this for sure, sellers have been b*tch slapping buyers for the last several years, when this market turns it is going to be a whole lot worse than 2008... time to sell is now!

 

[gringott]

"They" want to start the minority loans for housing again.
Meaning you have to lend money for housing to anyone, credit history is racist.
Important to sell housing to people who can't pay.

 

[ErrosionOfAccord]

Left coasters have buoyed the market here. It should be failing horribly because the energy sector is dying. This has been an exceptionally mild winter for this region. When them commiefornians see a real Wyoming winter, they are going to curl up and die.

 

[Scorpio]

time to sell is now!

exactly

 

[Scorpio]

and creates a different dynamic also,

someone wants to sell into the market, has a look around, sees big gains from their existing,
then they go look at possibles and what it would take to buy the next,

which brings on the realization that holy smokes, the price to replace is high

the nerve........... all prices going up, not just their home
it is like a 2x4 of reality hitting them upside the noggin'

that his neighbor, and his neighbor, and his neighbor, all also want more for their homes

sunsaguns anyway, I am special
why can't I cash in?

 

[BackwardsEngineeer]

Hear ya Scorp,
Almost impossible to convince people to let go of their primary residence, even if it has risen way beyond reality. Have close friends who have bought close to 2m worth of RE, a beautiful lake lot and ocean front condo in the last month... all because they fear removal of 1031 under current administration. Fear is just not a great basis for good decision making.

Anyway, continue to have droves of people looking into investment properties, showed 1.2m quad downtown yesterday, combination of a couple commercial spaces down and 2/1 up... decent cashflow, but it just screams 700k post crash to me...

Going to enjoy flipping metals and anything else including the kitchen sink on the backside of this curve. The main reason I keep working to preserve capital and stay market sharp on what I want and where.. making a list and checking it twice

 

[hammerhead]

and creates a different dynamic also,

someone wants to sell into the market, has a look around, sees big gains from their existing,
then they go look at possibles and what it would take to buy the next,

which brings on the realization that holy smokes, the price to replace is high

the nerve........... all prices going up, not just their home
it is like a 2x4 of reality hitting them upside the noggin'

that his neighbor, and his neighbor, and his neighbor, all also want more for their homes

sunsaguns anyway, I am special
why can't I cash in?

The way one could cash in is downsizing.

 

[gringott]

Or selling in a high price high demand area and moving to small town America.

Trading one overpriced home for another doesn't pass the smell test for me.

Glad I bought cheap. Personally, I could walk away and move to a rental if I had to. Or a tent.

My life savings aren't in a fixed liability aka housing.

 

[Brio]

I've been following the lumber market, was near US$900/1,000fbm yesterday
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
That's a HUGE cost in new construction. Break even is ~ US$300 for producers. I have no idea what's going on.

 

[BackwardsEngineeer]

I've been following the lumber market, was near US$900/1,000fbm yesterday
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
That's a HUGE cost in new construction. Break even is ~ US$300 for producers. I have no idea what's going on.

Have no definite data why lumber is skyrocketing, other than producers charging more because they can. Lord knows we still have pine trees up and down through the Southeast, carolinas and Georgia, sweet fragrance of a paper mills greats me on my morning walk. Norbord spitting them out in Prosperity, truss people grinning from ear to ear and reasonable fuel prices still.....

 

[Scorpio]

'It's been crazy:' Pandemic has sent lumber prices soaring, causing home construction costs to rise amid strong demand

• John Reid Blackwell
• Dec 11, 2020
• 8

Editor`s Special! 1 year only $26
1 of 16


Lumber at construction site in the Wyndham neighborhood for Boone Homes, Friday, Nov. 20, 2020

• JOE MAHONEY/TIMES-DISPATCH

Lumber at construction site in the Wyndham neighborhood for Boone Homes, Friday, Nov. 20, 2020

• JOE MAHONEY/TIMES-DISPATCH

John Reid Blackwell
From its large lumberyard in eastern Henrico County, the Ruffin & Payne Lumber Co. ships out building products to construction projects around the Richmond region.
With 40 years of experience in the lumber industry, company President George E. Haw says he hasn’t experienced anything quite like what has happened this year with lumber prices, as the COVID-19 pandemic has played havoc with them almost all of 2020.
“It’s been crazy,” Haw said. “I’ve been around a long time, and I have never seen a lumber market behave like this in 40 years.”
On a recent ride around the lumber yard, his son, George W. Haw, the company’s vice president and director of purchasing, pointed out some of the varieties of lumber stacked around the operation and how prices have been affected. That includes some of the most common types of lumber used in home construction — southern yellow pine, which is often used in house framing, and spruce fir pine.

For instance, a 2x4x12 piece of yellow pine that sold for about $4.20 a year ago jumped to about $9.50 by this fall. Prices for 16-foot deckboard, typically used in building home decks, jumped from about $18 a year ago to around $34 this fall before it dropped off that high, though prices are still well above a year ago.

Most of the price increases, the Haws said, were due to COVID-19 closures or production curtailments at the thousands of lumber mills around the country that supply the industry.


“The mills — and everyone — were under the wrong assumption that demand would go down a fair amount given all the lockdowns,” George W. Haw said. “Lumber mills started to do a lot of curtailments to prepare for less demand. They cut down on shifts. What they found out soon after was with everyone being locked down in their houses and sitting around, the repair and remodel industry just skyrocketed.”

Higher lumber costs have rippled into the home construction market.
The National Association of Home Builders, a trade organization, reported that lumber prices per thousand board feet more than doubled from less than $400 in January to more than $900 in September, based on composite data collected by Random Lengths, an industry publication. Prices dropped off in October but remain higher than a year ago.


“On the supply side, mills started curtailing operations as the pandemic spread throughout the country and lockdown orders were issued, and they were slow to come back online,” said David Logan, director of tax and trade policy analysis for the NAHB.

“On the demand side, we saw this surge in do-it-yourself activity, and demand from big-box retailers for lumber for at-home projects and small contracted projects,” he said. “Then the housing market bounced back stronger and faster than almost anyone expected. All of that developed the perfect storm for this historic run in lumber prices.”


The home builders group said rising lumber costs this year have added about $16,000 to the average price of a single-family home.
That increase is consistent with what builders in the Richmond region have seen, said Danna Markland, chief executive officer of the Home Building Association of Richmond.

Yet demand for new homes remains strong, and demand is one factor that helped drive up costs for lumber.


“Confidence is still high in sales and demand,” Markland said. “Buyers will see those price increases, and that has kept some buyers out of the market.”
Single-family home building has remained a bright spot in the economy during the economic downturn caused by COVID-19. U.S. construction spending jumped 1.3% in October, largely on the strength of single-family home building, the U.S. Commerce Department reported recently.
Single-family home construction rose 5.6% in October, contributing to a 2.9% increase in total private residential construction for the month.

The actual cost that a home buyer might see as a result of lumber price increases could vary greatly depending on how much lumber is used in a particular home construction, said Mitchell Bode, executive vice president of Boone Homes, a custom home builder in the Richmond area, and president of the Home Building Association of Richmond.

“I would say that some builders are passing on as much [of the cost] as they can,” Bode said. “I don’t think they are passing on the full cost. It is having a big impact on the building industry in general.”

Bode said home builders have passed along costs to home buyers from as little as nothing to as much as $35,000 to account for lumber price increases.

Yet the market for new homes still remains strong, he said.
“We have seen some hesitation with buyers,” because of the cost increase, he said. “But we are still projected to have the best sales year for Boone since 2007.”
Corey Connors, executive director of the Virginia Forestry Association, said the state was fortunate that most every business in the forestry supply chain was deemed “essential” and has continued to operate during the pandemic.
“With some quick action and adaptation, our member manufacturers were able to continue operating under enhanced safety protocols,” Connors said.

Demand dropped in April amidst all of the uncertainty over COVID-19, then started to rebound throughout the spring and summer with solid housing starts and a large increase in home improvement projects.

“With respect to sawmill closures, it’s important to distinguish between hardwood and softwood mills,” Connors said. “Market conditions for hardwood sawmills were not ideal pre-COVID for a number of reasons. In some cases, the pandemic was the final straw that broke the camel’s back for those closing permanently this year.”


“For softwood mills, the market peaked over the summer based on housing starts and home renovation projects as suggested by builders and lumber yards,” he said. “But since mid-September, softwood prices began a return to more historical norms.”

While the price of lumber has come down some since early in the fall, the Haws from Ruffin & Payne say they foresee higher prices being a factor in building costs for a good while to come.
“Obviously, we are still dealing with COVID, and we are going to continue dealing with it for however long,” George W. Haw said. “I think next year, there is still going to be a pretty sizable gap between the availability and the demand, but the mills will be producing more than they were, so there is not going to be as large of a gap between supply and demand, but it is still going to be there.”

jblackwell@timesdispatch.com

https://richmond.com/business/its-b...cle_4da0a48b-9036-56d9-ba52-d580c82ce11d.html

 

[Brio]

Have no definite data why lumber is skyrocketing, other than producers charging more because they can. Lord knows we still have pine trees up and down through the Southeast, carolinas and Georgia, sweet fragrance of a paper mills greats me on my morning walk. Norbord spitting them out in Prosperity, truss people grinning from ear to ear and reasonable fuel prices still.....

Producers don't set the price of lumber, the market does.

 

[Scorpio]

why?

remember tramps actions re canadian imports?
how about shafta?

how about boo hoo flu with all the slaves being paid to stay home rather than getting off their collective asses and getting to work?
.gov shutting down mills, or forcing new work rules as the slaves are supposed to be tested and social distance,

etc.

all manner of reasons,

so you have supply constraints,
then you have demand expansion,

brings higher prices,
it isn't that hard

 

[Scorpio]

here is the weekly lumber chart

note how the broad double top just failed and it is breaking to the up,
hopefully that is the head on a future head and shoulders or prices are going to get even worse

 

[solarion]

Producers don't set the price of lumber, the market does.

Rigged markets + regulation + government interventionism = lumber prices.

For instance, just rigging interest rates for 40 years straight increases lumber prices.

 

[Brio]

The entire softwood lumber dispute was about forcing Canadian raw logs shipped to US sawmills. 2008 saw 40% of BC mills closed, one port in Prince Rupert is now shipping 80 loads/day to the US, all the sawmills in the area are closed. 1,000s of jobs gone to the US. Zoellick shuttered BC industry in 2007 and was rewarded with the presidency of the world bank. The claim was BC unfairly subsidizes the industry but the simple fact is, yes stumpage is low in BC but offset by reforestation costs. See, if you harvest timber in Canada forest regen and stand maintenance is part of the cost.

 

[BackwardsEngineeer]

"The home builders group said rising lumber costs this year have added about $16,000 to the average price of a single-family home."
If as the article states it bumps a 300k house 16k, then double that for a 600k place adds roughly 30k to the price of a home, add in gauging from window, millwork, appliance and cabinet folks jacks it up 50 to 60k.... so if its the vid why did I get a quote on a duplicate home to mine (bought in May)for a client on a somewhat lesser lot for 150k upcharge? What I was really digging at is that lumber, homes, food are all showing signs of USD entering early stages of an Zimbabwe experience... they keep telling us they fear deflation but they are stoking the inflation fire and you can see it all around...

Btw had to endure another monthly with my misses who clearly sees the inflation and charts many data points asking "ok, you bought all that damn metal just when is it going to go up like everything else is? .... So in my best silver sammy voice I say to the moon baby! to which see says its not an investment if you never sell any, its just a boat anchor! to which I have no reply... bout time for the metals to start acting like bitcoin

 

[hammerhead]

The entire softwood lumber dispute was about forcing Canadian raw logs shipped to US sawmills. 2008 saw 40% of BC mills closed, one port in Prince Rupert is now shipping 80 loads/day to the US, all the sawmills in the area are closed. 1,000s of jobs gone to the US. Zoellick shuttered BC industry in 2007 and was rewarded with the presidency of the world bank. The claim was BC unfairly subsidizes the industry but the simple fact is, yes stumpage is low in BC but offset by reforestation costs. See, if you harvest timber in Canada forest regen and stand maintenance is part of the cost.

Can't find a 16' cedar 5/4 x 6 deck board anywhere around here. Luckily I only needed one and got away with splicing the joint but to do the whole deck would have not been possible.

 

[Brio]

Can't find a 16' cedar 5/4 x 6 deck board anywhere around here. Luckily I only needed one and got away with splicing the joint but to do the whole deck would have not been possible.

The costs are the same for me as they are for you. Except I get a 10% employee discount bc I work there lol.

 

[Silver]

Talked to a builder friend yesterday and he has 3 new contracts to build custom houses, poured 2 slabs this week. The supply of housing in the area is very low and people are moving in. There are lots of people out there roaming around looking for new places to move. See them everyday.

 

[hammerhead]

The costs are the same for me as they are for you. Except I get a 10% employee discount bc I work there lol.

Yeah but I can't get them. Maybe by Spring.

 

[solarion]

Seems to me, the "new norm" of working at home will guarantee lots of housing inventory changing hands for some while to come. Out of control dictatorial shitholes like Commiefornia, New York, and Illinois will bleed population as people flee cutting edge tyranny for web connected jobs in more freedom centric locales...with generally lower costs of living.

Short housing markets in big city cesspools and long housing in suburban Amerika.

 

[Thecrensh]

The big builders are plopping homes up as fast as they can hammer nails in around the panhandle of FL. It's shocking, to be honest. New developments are popping up everywhere and they're selling before the home is even finished. And I'm not talking about waterfront...I'm talking about townhomes crowded next to each other by the dozens.

 

[nickndfl]

Jacksonville is Florida's busiest market right now. South Florida has almost run out of vacant land for housing.

 

[hammerhead]

Jacksonville is Florida's busiest market right now. South Florida has almost run out of vacant land for housing.

All the empty lots I saw on Marco have owls nests on them.

 

[DodgebyDave]

South Florida is a toughy..........you are building in a swamp praying a limestone sinkhole doesn't move in next door

 

[Voodoo]

New article that dares point out that mortgage forbearance may be creating problems. Bets on whether or not they actually let this thing end?

Mortgage Firms Warned to Prepare for a ‘Tidal Wave’ of Distress

(Bloomberg) -- Mortgage companies could face penalties if they don’t take steps to prevent a deluge of foreclosures that threatens to hit the housing market later this year, a U.S. regulator said Thursday.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warning is tied to forbearance relief that’s...

finance.yahoo.com

More than 2 million borrowers as of January had either postponed their payments or failed to make them for at least three months, the bureau said. Once government-authorized forbearance plans begin to end in September, hundreds of thousands of people may need assistance getting back on track

 

[Buck]

and it's the mortgage companies that are supposed to take the hit if / when it doesn't work


passing the buck, DC Style

 

[GOLDBRIX]

here is the chart re supply of homes

the last crash came after a build in supply of homes that went on for 4 years, from 05 to 09

then the collapse lasted another 3-4 years or from about 09 to early 13 before stabilizing a bit

now sure, the economic crash started a year before the housing supply peaked or in 08 or so and in 09 gdp was actually hitting its lows
meaning housing follows gdp, does not lead it

which makes sense due to the pipeline and time it takes to get something from concept to market

projects already started will mostly complete unless banks pull the financing, and new projects will be put on the shelf for better times


View attachment 200257


View attachment 200258

What is needed is a chart of those who are NOT keeping up on their mortgage payments, and using the WuFlu moratorium.
When that moratorium is ended there will be a big roaring crash from those who participated and quit paying. JMWAG

 

[the_shootist]

The entire softwood lumber dispute was about forcing Canadian raw logs shipped to US sawmills. 2008 saw 40% of BC mills closed, one port in Prince Rupert is now shipping 80 loads/day to the US, all the sawmills in the area are closed. 1,000s of jobs gone to the US. Zoellick shuttered BC industry in 2007 and was rewarded with the presidency of the world bank. The claim was BC unfairly subsidizes the industry but the simple fact is, yes stumpage is low in BC but offset by reforestation costs. See, if you harvest timber in Canada forest regen and stand maintenance is part of the cost.

Shortages are quite often manufactured for either political gain or to just fatten the wallets of certain individuals at the expense of everyone else. Actual shortages are rare .

 

[GOLDBRIX]

The entire softwood lumber dispute was about forcing Canadian raw logs shipped to US sawmills. 2008 saw 40% of BC mills closed, one port in Prince Rupert is now shipping 80 loads/day to the US, all the sawmills in the area are closed. 1,000s of jobs gone to the US. Zoellick shuttered BC industry in 2007 and was rewarded with the presidency of the world bank. The claim was BC unfairly subsidizes the industry but the simple fact is, yes stumpage is low in BC but offset by reforestation costs. See, if you harvest timber in Canada forest regen and stand maintenance is part of the cost.

Supposed to be that way here too wood and coal. But the coal industry always seems to go bankrupt before restoration and the bonds that were to be in place before work could begin seem to have never gotten finalized. Not bond, no money from the bankrupt company, aka B.S.