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Why I'm about to buy BTU

ErrosionOfAccord

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#1
Opened an Ameritrade account today and will be buying a block of BTU, here's why.
draglines.png

The west black line of the rectangle represents nothing but my ineptness with Paint. The north, east and south black lines represent the approximate current pit boundaries. The Google Earth photo is at least a year old. The yellow rectangle represents an area that is currently mined out. The arrows represent the direction of mine progress. Currently the mine is being high graded, in other words, they are shooting for the highest profit margin. The yellow area was mined using shovels in order to prepare the area to be mined with draglines such as the one in the red circle. The current east to west configuration of the pits probably averages about 2.75:1 strip ratio. over the course of the next couple of quarters I expect a dragline to start mining to the west just west of the yellow rectangle where the strip ratio is about 1.25:1. This will do a couple of things; A) it will lower cost significantly B) It will put pressure on other mines in the region. I'm just thinking aloud but in my best guestimation BTU, which is already the largest producer in the PRB is looking to increase their value by decreasing the value of other properties by putting them out of business. I'm hoping like hell to get my block purchased prior to the 25th when the quarterly results come out. All is pending a money transfer to Ameritrade.

In other news Revelation Coal is purchasing the old Alpha (now Contura) mines in the basin. They are about to take a blow to the nuts IMHO because the Belle Aye mine is going to be hurt by this BTU move.

As always DYODD and comments are welcome.
 

EO 11110

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#2
so you are seeing an increase in supply? how's the demand side look?
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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Demand side is fine with gas at $2.91 in the shoulder months. Also postulating that some supply will go away when these other mines feel the pinch.
 

Goldhedge

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#4
BTU's a gas $30/share
 

GOLDBRIX

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Well, You are close to historic lows per share. 2015 was the last dividend of o.oo25 cents per share.

Barry done alot of damage to coal users in the United States whether a recovery is close at hand under a TRUMP Administration I feel is too soon to call.

It will be a hellofa Move if you hit.

I'm in SJT a < $8.00 per share with a MONTHLY DIV $0.07 per share. NatGas w/ Season Coming, 11.23% annual DIV. return, Popularity/Demand of NatGas increasing with improving economy.

Right now I'm re-investing the DIVs for more shares of SJT.

JMO
DYODD,
GLTA,
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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Don't forget BTU emerged from BK last spring.
 

Mujahideen

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#8
What are you expecting this stock (sjt) to do? Do you see it reaching $10 by next year?
 

GOLDBRIX

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#9

ErrosionOfAccord

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I plan on being out of it by this time next year. My take is that cost per ton will go down for the PRB during the next three quarters and induce increased share prices. Have been watching this progress and probably should have pulled the trigger last quarter. I don't have inside information, just watching the progress and see what's going on.
 

GOLDBRIX

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#11
What are you expecting this stock (sjt) to do? Do you see it reaching $10 by next year?
Technically SJT is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust, NOT a STOCK.
I see Unit Share pricing increasing through the Winter months, possible increases in Unit Distribution, and especially in a TRUMP led economy improving.

I'm getting paid every month to wait and see.

FYI - I do hold this in a ROTH IRA so there are TAX differences compared to those who hold it outside a ROTH.

GLTA.
DYODD,
 

EO 11110

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#13
that sjt - think you are limited on how much you can hold in an ira. that's a shame

i like the mlp's -- if they are okay now, at this oil price...
 

Professur

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#14
And I can't find heating coal in Quebec for any money.
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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#15
The pic I posted probably isn’t a tenth of the mine. Type NARM into google earth. Then zoom out.
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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Up 30%

Also bought 3400 shares of cctc on a whim. At .11 per share I’m not horribly concerned the PRB coal is about 27-30% water. Shipping all of that water by rail to power plants is a huge cost and waste issue. If CCTC makes good on this technology they will be a pretty incredible company. Coal drying has been tried here and failed due to explosions and other issues. It’s a buy and hold gamble for me.
 
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GOLDBRIX

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#17
that sjt - think you are limited on how much you can hold in an ira. that's a shame

That is news to me.
There are limits considering what your income is in any Traditional IRA. If you qualify for a Roth (Post-Tax) IRA I do not recall limits.
I aint no where close if there are. DYODD
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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Up just shy of forty percent. Curious what the quarterly brings on the 7th. So curious I put a $5.62 trailing stop in place. My current plan is to ride it up and create seed money for smaller companies. This is my first foray into equities so I’ll probably manage to piss every dime away.
 
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GOLDBRIX

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#19
A general rule is - When you decide at what price you are willing to pay for an equity you need to start deciding at what price you are SELLING.