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Workers quit their jobs at a record-high rate at the end of the summer

WillA2

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Hmm… how much of this is people quitting their job and working for

Hmm… how much of this is people quitting their job and working for Uber?

Went to a car wash yesterday, to see if they would detail the inside of the cab of my 4WD pickup. Older lady quoted me $25.00 to clean out my
pickup, armor all dash, etc.

Lady that gave me the quote and does the detailing is a former 30 year Registered Nurse.

Never know what second career people go into.
 

Joe King

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As for why they quit, I think this guy is on to something.


The August JOLTS report showed a new record in the number of people quitting their jobs. Many economists are left scratching their heads at this, especially considering how long it has been since government assistance has come to an end. It seems the real reason might be something that has been brewing and building for a long time, and may be the beginning of a trend set to undo many years of employment harm.
 

Casey Jones

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Went to a car wash yesterday, to see if they would detail the inside of the cab of my 4WD pickup. Older lady quoted me $25.00 to clean out my
pickup, armor all dash, etc.

Lady that gave me the quote and does the detailing is a former 30 year Registered Nurse.

Never know what second career people go into.
She may have socked some away.

I went from a six-figure income on the railroad, to driving Uber. I could live on $12k and I did, for two years.

I had to make a few dips into the stacks, but not terribly deep.
 

Scorpio

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As for why they quit, I think this guy is on to something.


The August JOLTS report showed a new record in the number of people quitting their jobs. Many economists are left scratching their heads at this, especially considering how long it has been since government assistance has come to an end. It seems the real reason might be something that has been brewing and building for a long time, and may be the beginning of a trend set to undo many years of employment harm.

he kind of states they are having a Aha moment, so quitting and going somewhere else,

but again, this completely negates what is really going on. If that were true, labor participation would be flat at minimum and rising if ultimately true. Fact is, LP is declining, and now about 61.1%. A massively bad number. With his supposed argument, leaving a job for another, the rate would be flat.

tramp actually stopped the bleeding while he was in after the kenyan, and since it is deteriorating yet again with hidin' in

the kenyan actually manned the con to the tune of about 3 full points or about 9.6M persons less in labor participation

laobr.jpg
 

Joe King

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With his supposed argument, leaving a job for another, the rate would be flat.
I don't believe he's saying that's the only thing driving it, just that it might be the reason the numbers are so much higher than normal right now.


LP is declining, and now about 61.
Is 61.6 really a big deal? I'm kinda thinking it's not, because the average since just after WW2 until last year has only been 62.85

Also, it's up for the year. Not by much, but the chart year by year, the rate goes up and down on the Monthly all the time, regardless of whether it's on a long term uptrend or downtrend.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART



Another thing is immigration. Both kinds.
How many have come in who are of working age, but have few to no skills and are so far unemployed? Are they added into the number of all possible workers? I'm kinda thinkin' they are.

If so, I would think that would skew the numbers to the negative. I've heard we've been importing an amount equal to the population of Chattanooga Tn every Month for awhile now, and it only takes a few hundred thousand people one way or the other getting hired/fired/quitting to make or break a Monthly jobs report.
....but who knows? Without firm data we're all just speculating.
 

Scorpio

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.but who knows? Without firm data we're all just speculating.

that is for sure, as we really have no idea what is in any of their numbers

if you want to call 9.6M persons not material, by all means, go ahead on,
but that is a whole lot of taxpayers where .gov is not getting the weekly/biweekly feed off
(the difference between a 66% and a 63% under the kenyan)

and now with hidin' it is down already over a full point or another few million workers. So we are talking a net of 12-13M at this point.

and again if you look at the chart I posted, it clearly shows while the kenyan was in with the giveaways, participation was moving down big, while tramp actually got people to work again and stabilized it to up, and now down we go again

the economics of the country do not survive a plummeting WPR.

but I have not compared the boomer retirements over the period vs replacements, of which immigration plays a part in as well as the succeeding generations.

all those job openings, filled with a higher part rate
 

Scorpio

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regarding .gov revenue off those missing persons,

say it is 12M missing, and they make 40k a year,
that is missing wages of $9.23B per WEEK

The combined total deductions for SS and Medi is 15.3%

so per week, .gov is not getting over $1.4B in revenue to apply to the SS and Medi funds
or about $73.4B per year (enough to pay off 3M retirees at 2 grand a month)

to me, that is a big deal even if you cut it in half and say they would only make 1/2 of what was stated
 

Joe King

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if you want to call 9.6M persons not material, by all means, go ahead on,
but that is a whole lot of taxpayers where .gov is not getting the weekly/biweekly feed off
The 9.6m is the total lost since the start of the wuflu, but it's recovered more than half of that back.
....and I thought the issue in this thread was the number of workers that quit in August?

Nearly 4.3 million workers voluntarily left their jobs in August, according to the Labor Department’s latest JOLTS report,

4.3m may have quit, but the actual number of active workers in the labor force only dropped by a little more than 200,000 from August to September. (161,537,000 in Aug down to 161,354,000 in Sept)

So the bulk of those quitting had to go work somewhere else, otherwise wouldn't the labor force numbers have dropped by 4.6m instead of just ~200,000?



 
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Scorpio

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that is not correct at all,
none of that

the numbers were taken from charts

the conversation was about LP, or WPR,

as for thread drift, so what,
 

Joe King

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the conversation was about LP, or WPR,
Right, and in actual numbers on the chart I'm lookin' at, shows only about 200k fewer workers in Sept than in Aug.

Maybe I'm wrong, but to me, it just seems like a big nothing burger.
 

Scorpio

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I said the kenyan was directly responsible for a net loss of 3points in WPR worker participation rate
with me so far?

320M slaves in the us of friggin a restimate (rough estimate), x 3% = 9.6M lost or out of workplace

still with me?

I said hidin' was responsible for another full point loss in WPR, if 3% = 9.6M, then 1% is greater than another 3M

so you have minimum 12M out, and the range was up to 14M

envelope calcs, my bad, but you get the point

those 2 dimwits are responsible for over 12M people out of the workforce using the .gov WPR rate
 

Joe King

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those 2 dimwits are responsible for over 12M people out of the workforce using the .gov WPR rate
I don't know where they went, but if they aren't working, they must be able to afford not to.

As for the recent Month's numbers, I still think it's a non issue.
 

Scorpio

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just making a bigger point, as someone pointed out above that it was a weary discussion to talk of such things,

when point of fact is, from the chart attached, it clearly shows with bush II, it was relatively stable, enter the kenyan, boom to the down, then tramp and it stabilized to up, then enter hidin' and again boom to the down

liberal policies disincentive worker participation, going back to the original comment and discussion
about persons not wanting to work, giveaways, etc.

he stated I didn't 'get it', and he wasn't surprised,


1.jpg
 

Joe King

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when point of fact is, from the chart attached, it clearly shows with bush II, it was relatively stable,
He also started his term with the LPR at the historical all-time high.

When things are already at all-time highs, doesn't it stand to reason that the next trend will likely be to the down?


liberal policies disincentive worker participation
Absolutely agree.
....and we already know that the obozo/hag/bidet plan was/is for a declining America.


about persons not wanting to work,
Who wants to, that could afford not to?
 

Scorpio

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here is a further look back,

all the way back, to prior both persons in the household heading off to the .corp slave train,
prior to the selling of the amerikan dream of consumption, and buy on payments,

you can see the WPR was 58-60%
we currently are approaching that upper zone of that period,

think of all the women you know that are in the workforce, begging the question, who is not?

is it retirees, is it able bodied males, or ?

at that time, the mostly males were paying for everything, whether .gov or wars or ? Then today we have all these women in the workforce, and yet $2T annual deficits,

then who are these women in the workforce replacing to maintain the WPR where it is

labor.jpg
 

Scorpio

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boomer range 1946-1964 so they say

46 + 62 + 2008

beginning of boomer retires

1955 + 62 = 2017 midpoint of age group

end of their retires

1964 + 62 = 2026 (but we all know they changed the game and those aren't eligible until at least 2031)

the chart of WPR matches up just fine with boomer retirement period,
but that is assuming no replacements,
in addition to the number of women in the workplace